June 4, 2025 Interest Rate Announcement 09:45 (ET) On eight scheduled dates each year, the Bank of Canada announces the setting for the overnight rate target in a press release explaining the factors behind the decision. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
Entry and Exit in Treasury Auctions Staff Working Paper 2024-29 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Eric Richert, Milena Wittwer This paper introduces and estimates a structural model of the Canadian primary market for government debt. We assess the role of dealer exit in this market as a key reason for increased, yet irregular, customer entry and quantify the benefits of greater customer competition against the costs of higher market volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, D47, G, G1, G12, G2, G28
August 2, 2024 Market Participants Survey—Second Quarter of 2024 The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 30 financial market participants. Content Type(s): Publications, Market Participants Survey
Foreign exchange risk premiums and global currency factors Staff Analytical Note 2024-20 Ingomar Krohn, Mariel Yacolca Maguiña Global currency risk factors continue to explain a large share of the variation in the Canadian dollar during the period following the 2008–09 global financial crisis. We show that they are also systematically important for risk premiums, and only in recent months has the role of idiosyncratic country-specific risks grown. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
July 24, 2024 Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 4½% Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
July 15, 2024 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2024 Consumers’ perceptions of inflation are unchanged from a quarter ago, but their expectations for near-term inflation declined significantly. While both measures have improved substantially in recent quarters, they remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Most consumers continue to think that domestic factors are contributing to high inflation. Sentiment remains subdued and unchanged from last quarter, as high inflation and elevated interest rates continue to constrain people’s budgets. Perceived financial stress remains high, most consumers continue to report spending cuts, and pessimism about future economic conditions persists. Canadians’ perceptions of the labour market have weakened this quarter, especially among private sector employees. Yet overall wage growth expectations reached a new survey high, driven by public sector employees. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
July 15, 2024 The Bank of Canada releases the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations On Monday, July 15, 2024, the Bank of Canada will release the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
July 8, 2024 CARR Meeting (July 8, 2024) Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
June 30, 2024 Quarterly Research Update – 2024 Q2 This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
The reliance of Canadians on credit card debt as a predictor of financial stress Staff Analytical Note 2024-18 Jia Qi Xiao I analyze the relationship between carrying a credit card balance and future financial stress. I find that carrying a balance significantly increases the likelihood that credit card holders miss future debt payments. This likelihood tends to rise as credit card balances grow and are held for long periods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21