October 22, 2019 Business Outlook Survey—Autumn 2019 Results from the autumn Business Outlook Survey indicate that business sentiment improved slightly, but regional differences are more pronounced. Positive views in Central Canada contrast with widespread weakness in the Prairies. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
September 30, 2019 Research Update - September 2019 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New in 2019? Staff Working Paper 2019-39 David Beers, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15
October 17, 2019 Advances in Fixed Income Macro-Finance Research The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco hosted the 7th Conference on Fixed Income Markets, discussing the implications for monetary policy of new research that focuses on bond and money markets. Content Type(s): Conferences and workshops
What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions? Staff Working Paper 2019-38 Jelena Zivanovic I use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with sign restrictions to provide conditional evidence on the behavior of the US external finance premium (EFP). The results indicate that the excess bond premium, a proxy for the EFP, reacts countercyclically to supply and monetary policy shocks and procyclically to demand shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44
Bank Runs, Portfolio Choice, and Liquidity Provision Staff Working Paper 2019-37 Toni Ahnert, Mahmoud Elamin After the financial crisis of 2007–09, many jurisdictions introduced new banking regulations to make banks more resilient and less likely to fail. These regulations included tighter limits for the quality and quantity of bank capital and introduced minimum standards for liquidity. But what was the impact of these changes? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Wholesale funding JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21
Explaining the Interplay Between Merchant Acceptance and Consumer Adoption in Two-Sided Markets for Payment Methods Staff Working Paper 2019-32 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Oleksandr Shcherbakov Recent consumer and merchant surveys show a decrease in the use of cash at the point of sale. Increasingly, consumers and merchants have access to a growing array of payment innovations as substitutes for cash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, L, L1, L13, L15, L8, L81, L9, L96
Model Uncertainty and Wealth Distribution Staff Working Paper 2019-48 Edouard Djeutem, Shaofeng Xu This paper studies the implications of model uncertainty for wealth distribution in a tractable general equilibrium model with a borrowing constraint and robustness à la Hansen and Sargent (2008). Households confront model uncertainty about the process driving the return of the risky asset, and they choose robust policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, E, E2
December 12, 2019 Inflation-target renewal, impact of technology highlight Bank of Canada’s 2020 work plan, Governor Poloz says Media Relations Toronto, Ontario Work toward renewing Canada’s inflation-targeting framework and understanding the impact of digital technology highlight a packed agenda for the Bank of Canada in 2020, Governor Stephen S. Poloz said today. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
December 12, 2019 Big Issues Ahead: The Bank’s 2020 Vision Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how long-term global economic forces will drive the Bank of Canada’s work agenda in 2020 and beyond. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Economic models, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Productivity