'Lean' versus 'Rich' Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession Staff Working Paper 2010-37 Marco J. Lombardi, Philipp Maier We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data from national economies (pseudo-real time data). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47
December 21, 2010 Bank of Canada Announces Extension of Expanded Swap Facility with U.S. Federal Reserve The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized an extension through 1 August 2011, of its temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank. The swap arrangements, established in May 2010, had been authorized through January 2011. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
December 13, 2010 Living with Low for Long Remarks Mark Carney Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Current turbulence in Europe is a reminder that the crisis is not over, but has merely entered a new phase. In a world awash with debt, repairing the balance sheets of banks, households and countries will take years. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
December 9, 2010 Results of the 9 December 2010 Term Repo Operation for Balance Sheet Management Purposes Today's results of the Term Repo Operation for Balance Sheet Management Purposes Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
December 8, 2010 Bank of Canada Announces Details of its Term Repo for Balance Sheet Management Purposes Operation Primary dealers are asked to submit their bids to the Bank of Canada between 09:15 and 09:30 (ET) on the day of the auction. The results of this operation will be announced on the Bank’s web site by 10:00 (ET). Winning bidders must notify the Bank of Canada of the securities that will be used in the operation by 11:00 (ET) on the day of the auction. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
December 8, 2010 Bank of Canada Announces Closure of Optical Security Material Division and Sale of Related Assets Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada announced today that it is closing its Optical Security Material (OSM) division and selling all of its related assets. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
August 18, 2011 Developing a Medium-Term Debt-Management Strategy for the Government of Canada Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2011 Marc Larson, Étienne Lessard As the Government of Canada’s fiscal agent, the Bank of Canada provides strategic policy advice on the management of the government’s debt, in addition to being responsible for conducting debt-management operations. In this article, the authors review the evolution of the debt strategy over the past 20 years and outline the complex process of developing a sound strategy that balances various cost and risk considerations. This includes an examination of the tools and practices used to develop the new medium-term debt-management strategy, such as the modelling approach involved, market consultations and various debt-management metrics. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Debt management, Economic models
Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada Staff Working Paper 2011-17 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Jakub Kastl This paper explores the reliability of using prices of credit default swap contracts (CDS) as indicators of default probabilities during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G28
Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil Staff Working Paper 2011-16 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
June 22, 2011 Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Opening statement Mark Carney Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Governor Mark Carney outlines the highlights of the Bank of Canada’s analyses of the economic outlook and the stability of the financial system. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements