August 10, 1995 Aspects of economic restructuring in Canada, 1989-1994 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 1995 Ron Parker The way in which Canadian firms produce goods and services has changed dramatically during the 1990s. A major feature of this restructuring has been a shift towards greater use of capital goods, particularly computer-based technology, relative to labour in production processes. The author examines this phenomenon from a macroeconomic perspective, identifying the principal factors behind the trends in investment and employment since the late 1980s. The analysis focusses on the relative costs of capital and labour over the period and on their implications for output and employment. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
April 9, 2009 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009 Examination of progress in the Bank’s exploration of two alternatives to the current inflation-targeting framework: (i) lowering the inflation target and (ii) shifting to a price-level target; a review of arguments for and against price-level targeting, focusing on its costs and benefits compared with inflation targeting; assessing the merits of price-level targeting vis-à-vis inflation targeting from a debt-revaluation perspective; quantifying redistribution of wealth in Canada in the face of unexpected inflation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
December 9, 1994 The term structure of interest rates as a leading indicator of economic activity: A technical note Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1994-1995 Kevin Clinton The spread between long-term and short-term interest rates has proven to be an excellent predictor of changes of economic activity in Canada. As a general rule, when long-term interest rates have been much above short-term rates, strong increases in output have followed within about a year; however, whenever the yield curve has been inverted for any extended period of time, a recession has followed. Similar findings exist for other countries, including the United States. But although Canadian and U.S. interest rates generally move quite closely together, the Canadian yield curve has been distinctly better at predicting future Canadian output. The explanation given for this result is that the term spread has reflected both current monetary conditions, which affect short-term interest rates, and expected real returns on investment and expectations of inflation, which are the main determinants of long-term rates. This article is mainly a summary of econometric work done at the Bank. It also touches on some of the extensive recent literature in this area. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary and financial indicators
January 9, 1995 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1994-1995 Cover page Canada: The Phenix Bank, one dollar, 1837 This one-dollar note is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by James Zagon. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
November 8, 1994 The demand for currency and the underground economy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1994 Thérèse Laflèche The underground economy in Canada has attracted increased attention over the past few years, yet there is no precise way to measure its size. Recent estimates vary between 4 per cent and 15 per cent of gross domestic product. This article provides an overview of measurement issues and recent estimates. It then focusses on the "monetary" approach to estimating the size of the underground economy. This approach is based on the assumption that the demand for bank notes provides a clue as to the size of the underground economy. The article concludes that estimates that use this approach must be viewed with considerable caution. They are based on a number of assumptions that are difficult to verify and that significantly affect the results. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Monetary aggregates
Price Level Targeting: What Is the Right Price? Staff Working Paper 2010-8 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt Various papers have suggested that Price-Level targeting is a welfare improving policy relative to Inflation targeting. From a practical standpoint, this raises an important yet unanswered question: What is the optimal price index to target? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52
A Band-Aid Solution to Inflation Targeting Staff Working Paper 1997-11 Robert Amano, Richard Black, Marcel Kasumovich This paper reviews selectively the literature on exchange rate target zones and corresponding methodologies and examines whether they can be used to analyse the inflation-control problem. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E50
Mesures du taux d'inflation tendanciel Staff Working Paper 1997-9 Thérèse Laflèche In this paper, the author calculates new measures of the trend inflation rate using changes in the components of total CPI; the hypothesis is that extreme fluctuations in certain prices reflect temporary supply shocks rather than any basic price trend. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
March 15, 2010 Bank of Canada Announces Recipients of 2010 Fellowship and Governor's Awards Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today announced that Professor Paul Beaudry of the University of British Columbia is the recipient of the Bank's Research Fellowship for 2010. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases Source(s): Fellowship Program
January 5, 2010 Results of the 5 January 2010 Term PRA Transaction The results of today's term PRA operations. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices