January 24, 2024 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
January 15, 2024 Flood risk and residential lending Craig Johnston, Geneviève Vallée, Hossein Hosseini, Miguel Molico, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts We present key findings of a recent study that evaluates the credit risk that flooding poses to the residential lending activities of Canadian banks and credit unions. Results show that such risk currently appears modest but could become larger with climate change. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54
January 15, 2024 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2023 Consumers believe inflation has fallen, but their expectations for inflation in the near term are showing little progress in returning to pre-pandemic levels. Slow progress may be due to persistently high inflation expectations for services such as rent. In addition, consumers increasingly think domestic factors, such as high government spending, are supporting high inflation, and they believe these factors will take longer to resolve than global factors. Consumers have adjusted their behaviour in response to prolonged high inflation—more people are paying attention to inflation and changing their spending habits. However, actions that may support inflation, such as seeking wage increases to offset it, are dissipating. The negative effects of high interest rates are broadening, and indicators of household financial stress are deteriorating. Consumers remain uncertain about the economic outlook, and this uncertainty is weighing on their spending plans. Workers think the labour market has weakened slightly. However, expectations for wage growth remain high, supported by cost-of-living adjustments in some workers’ wage contracts. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
January 11, 2024 GMF publishes the final framework on a fee for failing to settle GoC securities transactions The Government of Canada Market Functioning Steering Group (GMF) published today the final framework on a fee for failing to settle Government of Canada (GoC) bond and bill transactions. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Fixed-Income Forum
December 22, 2023 BNN Bloomberg Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada Interview with BNN Bloomberg Content Type(s): Press, Media activities
December 22, 2023 The Globe and Mail Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada Interview with The Globe and Mail Content Type(s): Press, Media activities
Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas Staff Working Paper 2023-62 Qi Li, Xu Zhang We find that minority households see greater declines in housing returns and entries into homeownership than White households after a tightening of monetary policy. Our findings emphasize the unintended consequences of monetary policy on racial inequality in the housing market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Housing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E52, R, R0, R00
Climate-Related Flood Risk to Residential Lending Portfolios in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2023-33 Craig Johnston, Geneviève Vallée, Hossein Hosseini, Brett Lindsay, Miguel Molico, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts We assess the potential financial risks of current and projected flooding caused by extreme weather events in Canada. We focus on the residential real estate secured lending (RESL) portfolios of Canadian financial institutions (FIs) because RESL portfolios are an important component of FIs’ balance sheets and because the assets used to secure such loans are immobile and susceptible to climate-related extreme weather events. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54
Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data Staff Discussion Paper 2023-32 Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54
November 4, 2024 Release: Market Participants Survey 10:30 (ET)The Market Participants Survey is conducted quarterly. Bank of Canada staff reach out to a diverse set of participants in financial markets to gather their views on key macroeconomic and financial variables as well as on monetary policy. Content Type(s): Upcoming events