March 11, 2010 Principles for Interesting Times Remarks Mark Carney Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario I would like to thank students from universities across Canada for joining me on this special day, the 75th anniversary of the Bank of Canada Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Market: Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns between Markets Staff Working Paper 1997-18 David Watt This paper analyses how Canadian financial firms manage short-term interest rate risk through the use of BAX futures contracts. The results show that the most effective hedging strategy is, on average, a static strategy based on linear regression that assumes constant variances, even though dynamic models allowing for time-varying variances are found to have superior explanatory power. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43
Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada Staff Working Paper 1998-14 Chantal Dupasquier, Nicholas Ricketts This paper analyzes the short-run dynamic process of inflation in Canada and examines whether a systematic variation in the relationship between inflation and output can be detected over time. In the theoretical literature, different models of price-setting behaviour predict that the slope of the Phillips curve will be a function of macroeconomic conditions, implying a […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits, Productivity
December 14, 1997 Recent economic and financial developments Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1997-1998 The Canadian economy expanded at an average rate of over 4 per cent through the second half of 1996 and the first three quarters of 1997. The expansion was supported by accommodative monetary conditions, substantial employment gains, low inflation, an improved fiscal postion, and strong U.S. demand. These factors will continue to underpin a scenario of sustained growth in output and employment in the period ahead. With the situation in Asia still evolving, it is difficult to be precise about the size of its overall impact on Canada. At the same time, there have been some positive developments including stronger-than-anticipated economic performance in the United States, Mexico, and Europe and declining longer-term interest rates in most industrial countries. The core rate of inflation slipped slightly below the 1 to 3 per cent target range in the closing months of 1997. With the unwinding of some of the special factors that contributed to the decline, trend inflation is expected to move back inside the range in coming months. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments
January 14, 1998 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1997-1998 Cover page Mafeking siege note This ten-shilling note measures 6 1/4 by 5 3/4 inches and forms part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by James Zagon. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
April 13, 2007 The Large-Value Payments System: Insights from Selected Bank of Canada Research Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2007 Neville Arjani, Walter Engert Given the Bank of Canada's strong interest in the safe and efficient operation of major clearing and settlement systems, the Bank maintains a rigorous research agenda as a means of informing payments system policy and oversight. In this article, Arjani and Engert review recent research undertaken by Bank staff concerning the risk and efficiency of the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). Based on the findings from this research, the authors conclude that the design of the LVTS strikes an effective balance between risk and efficiency. The article also demonstrates the increased use of simulation analysis as a tool for conducting payments system research. A brief summary of the Bank's oversight strategy for systemically important payments systems is also provided. Goals for future research are noted as well, including modelling of participant behaviour and continued external collaboration with other researchers. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems
April 14, 2007 The Canadian Overnight Market: Recent Evolution and Structural Changes Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2007 Christopher Reid Since 1997 when the Bank of Canada last published a review of the Canadian overnight market, several important changes have affected the market's structure and dynamics. Reid provides a current overview of the market, examining the financial instruments, market transparency and flows, and the collateralized overnight rate as it has evolved since the introduction of the Large Value Transfer System and the fixed announcement dates. Other significant influences include changes in market practices regarding risk management, the rise of securities lending, the increased demand for collateral, and the Bank of Canada's measures to reinforce the target for the overnight rate. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation
November 13, 1997 Statistical measures of the trend rate of inflation Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1997 Thérèse Laflèche As a guide for the conduct of monetary policy, most central banks make use of a trend inflation index similar to that employed by the Bank of Canada: the CPI excluding food, energy, and the effect of indirect taxes. In addition to their basic reference index, some central banks regularly publish statistical measures of the trend rate of inflation. The method used for producing these measures is, for the most part, based on the hypothesis that extreme price fluctuations generally reflect temporary shocks to the inflation rate, rather than its underlying trend. In this paper, the author offers a broad survey of studies on the measurement of trend inflation that have been published by the Bank of Canada and presents the results of the most recent work on the subject. Particular attention is paid to two statistical measures that the Bank follows more closely than other measures; namely, the CPIX, a price index that excludes eight of the most volatile CPI components, and CPIW, a measure that retains all the components of the overall index but gives a lower weighting to the most volatile. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices
November 14, 1997 European economic and monetary union: Background and implications Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1997 Chantal Dupasquier, Jocelyn Jacob The European Union, which currently consists of 15 states, occupies an important place among the advanced economies. The final stage of the European economic and monetary union (EMU) is scheduled to begin in January 1999 with the adoption of a common currency called the "euro." A decision on which countries will participate in the euro area in 1999 will be made next spring based in part on the achievement of the economic criteria laid out in the Maastricht Treaty. In this article, the authors, after a brief discussion of the historical background, cast some light on the institutional aspects of the EMU, on the formulation and implementation of economic policy, as well as on the internal and external effects of EMU completion. For Canada, the direct implications of the shift to the euro appear to be relatively modest, at least in the short run. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments
November 15, 2000 Recent Performance of the Canadian Economy: A Regional View Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2000 David Amirault, Louis-Robert Lafleur This article first outlines the activities of the Bank's regional offices and looks at how regional economic analysis fits into the Bank's decision-making process. The changing role of the regional offices in communications and in information gathering is examined, focusing on the quarterly surveys of industries and associations. The second section reviews, from a regional perspective, economic developments since the Asian crisis and future prospects. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Regional economic developments