July 31, 2021 Research Update - July 2021 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Estimating Large-Dimensional Connectedness Tables: The Great Moderation Through the Lens of Sectoral Spillovers Staff Working Paper 2021-37 Felix Brunner, Ruben Hipp Understanding the size of sectoral links is crucial to predicting the impact of a crisis on the whole economy. We show that statistical learning techniques substantially outperform traditional estimation techniques when measuring large networks of these links. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, E, E2, E23, E27
July 28, 2021 Bank of Canada appoints Ron Morrow as Executive Director – Retail Payments Supervision Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today announced the appointment of Ron Morrow as Executive Director – Retail Payments Supervision, effective August 9, 2021. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases Topic(s): Retail payments supervision
Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter Staff Working Paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F3, F31
May 20, 2021 Financial System Review Summary—2021 Tiff Macklem, Timothy Lane, Lawrence L. Schembri, Paul Beaudry, Toni Gravelle The Canadian financial system proved resilient during the COVID-19 pandemic—thanks to strong risk management and unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy support. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
May 20, 2021 Financial System Review—2021 A stable and efficient financial system is essential for sustaining economic growth and raising living standards. In our Financial System Review, we identify the main vulnerabilities and risks in the financial system in Canada and explain how they have evolved over the past year. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
May 13, 2021 The benefits of an inclusive economy Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Universities of Atlantic Canada Halifax, Nova Scotia Governor Tiff Macklem talks about diversity and inclusion are important for the Bank of Canada, for the economics and finance profession, and for the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, Monetary policy, Potential output
December 10, 2020 How quantitative easing works Speech summary Paul Beaudry Greater Moncton Chamber of Commerce, the Fredericton Chamber of Commerce, and the Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce Fredericton, New Brunswick, Moncton, New Brunswick, Saint John, New Brunswick Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry explains the Bank’s quantitative easing program and its role in the economic recovery. He also discusses the Bank’s decision yesterday to leave the policy rate unchanged. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission
December 9, 2020 Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues its quantitative easing program Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada Staff Working Paper 2020-52 Charles Bellemare, Rolande Kpekou Tossou, Kevin Moran We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E31