Business Cycles in Small, Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Data Between 1900 and 2013 Staff Working Paper 2016-48 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Wataru Miyamoto Using a novel data set for 17 countries dating from 1900 to 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44
October 24, 2016 Joint Statement of the Government of Canada and the Bank of Canada on the Renewal of the Inflation-Control Target Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Government of Canada and the Bank of Canada agreed that the inflation target will continue to be defined in terms of the 12-month rate of change in the total CPI, that it will continue to be the 2 per cent mid-point of the 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control range, and that the agreement will run for another five-year period, ending 31 December 2021. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
October 14, 2016 Weekly Financial Statistics - 14 October 2016 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
October 3, 2017 CFIF Meeting (October 3, 2017) Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Fixed-Income Forum
October 19, 2016 Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
June 23, 2017 Weekly Financial Statistics - 23 June 2017 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
A Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth Staff Discussion Paper 2017-8 Tony Chernis, Gabriella Velasco, Calista Cheung This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37, R, R1, R11
June 8, 2017 Canada’s International Investment Position: Benefits and Potential Vulnerabilities Financial System Review - June 2017 Gabriel Bruneau, Maxime Leboeuf, Guillaume Nolin While greater global financial integration is beneficial, the authors discuss how foreign capital inflows can also facilitate the buildup of domestic vulnerabilities and potentially lead to destabilizing reversals. Canada’s current international investment position is typical of advanced economies and will likely continue to act as an economic stabilizer. However, the growth and composition of Canada’s international investment position warrant continued monitoring. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32, F34, F36, F4, F6
May 30, 2017 Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2017 Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2017 - For the period ended 31 March 2017 Content Type(s): Publications, Quarterly Financial Report
Assessing the Predictive Ability of Sovereign Default Risk on Exchange Rate Returns Staff Working Paper 2017-19 Claudia Foroni, Francesco Ravazzolo, Barbara Sadaba Increased sovereign credit risk is often associated with sharp currency movements. Therefore, expectations of the probability of a sovereign default event can convey important information regarding future movements of exchange rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, C53, F, F3, F31