Non-Parametric and Neural Network Models of Inflation Changes Staff Working Paper 2000-7 Greg Tkacz Previous studies have shown that interest rate yield spreads contain useful information about future changes in inflation. However, such studies have for the most part focused on linear models, ignoring potential non-linearities between interest rates and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E3, E31
Implications of New Accounting Standards for the Bank of Canada's Balance Sheet Staff Discussion Paper 2007-2 Mark Zelmer, Grahame Johnson The Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants (CICA) has implemented new accounting standards for the valuation and reporting of financial instruments. They are effective for the Bank of Canada in 2007. As a result of these changes, the Bank has begun valuing its holdings of Government of Canada treasury bills on a fair value basis and […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, M, M4
Quelques résultats empiriques relatifs à l'évolution du taux de change Canada/États-Unis Staff Working Paper 2000-4 Ramdane Djoudad, David Tessier This paper explores the extent to which factors other than commodity and energy prices may have contributed to the Canadian dollar's depreciation since the early 1970s. The variables considered include among others budgetary conditions and productivity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31
Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate: Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for Canada Staff Working Paper 2000-3 Gilles Bérubé, Denise Côté This paper examines the structural determinants of the personal savings rate in Canada over the last 30 years, using cointegration techniques. The main finding is that the real interest rate, expected inflation, the ratio of the all-government fiscal balances to nominal GDP, and the ratio of household net worth to personal disposable income are the most […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E2, E21
March 9, 2000 The Conduct of Monetary Policy When You Live Next Door to a Large Neighbour Remarks Gordon Thiessen Canadian Society of New York New York, New York Both in Canada and elsewhere, much ink has been spilled over the past year on the pros and cons of different exchange rate regimes and the implications for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence Staff Working Paper 2002-31 Céline Gauthier, David Tessier In this paper, we study the impact of supply shocks on the Canadian real exchange rate. We specify a structural vector-error-correction model that links the real exchange rate to different fundamentals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F3, F31
Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model Staff Working Paper 2001-23 Ying Liu This paper uses a smooth transition error-correction model (STECM) to model the one-year and five-year mortgage rate changes. The model allows for a non-linear adjustment process of mortgage rates towards their long-run equilibrium. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C4, C49, E, E4, E47
A Consistent Bootstrap Test for Conditional Density Functions with Time-Dependent Data Staff Working Paper 2001-21 Fuchun Li, Greg Tkacz This paper describes a new test for evaluating conditional density functions that remains valid when the data are time-dependent and that is therefore applicable to forecasting problems. We show that the test statistic is asymptotically distributed standard normal under the null hypothesis, and diverges to infinity when the null hypothesis is false. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, E, E3, E37
Why Do Central Banks Smooth Interest Rates? Staff Working Paper 2001-17 Gabriel Srour It is commonly observed that central banks respond gradually to economic shocks, moving the interest rate in small discrete steps in the same direction over an extended period of time. This paper examines the empirical evidence regarding central banks' smoothing of interest rates, paying particular attention to the case of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5
L'effet de la richesse sur la consommation aux États-Unis Staff Working Paper 2001-14 Yanick Desnoyers The substantial growth in wealth over the course of the second half of the 1990s generated the equivalent of a certain level of savings, while simultaneously causing household savings rates to fall significantly. The author seeks to explain this decline in savings, observed since 1995, using the methodology developed by King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21