March 25, 2022 Household differences and why they matter Speech summary Sharon Kozicki Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference San Francisco, California Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about why differences in income, wealth and debt across households are important for the economy and what the Bank of Canada will be watching for as interest rates rise. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Economic models, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
Job Ladder and Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2022-14 Felipe Alves During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32
Vertical Bargaining and Obfuscation Staff Working Paper 2022-13 Edona Reshidi Is obscuring prices always bad for consumers? The answer depends on the market structure and on the negotiating power between manufacturers and retailers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C7, C70, L, L1, L13, L4, L42
More Than Words: Fed Chairs’ Communication During Congressional Testimonies Staff Working Paper 2022-20 Michelle Alexopoulos, Xinfen Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Xu Zhang We measure soft information contained in the congressional testimonies of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairs and analyze its effect on financial markets. Increases in the Chair’s text-, voice-, or face-emotion indices during these testimonies generally raise stock prices and lower their volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E7, E71
May 5, 2022 Economic reconciliation: Supporting a return to Indigenous prosperity Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri National Aboriginal Capital Corporations Association Gatineau, Quebec Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses economic reconciliation with Indigenous peoples. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy
May 5, 2022 Supporting Indigenous prosperity Speech summary Lawrence L. Schembri National Aboriginal Capital Corporations Association Gatineau, Quebec In his final speech before retiring from the Bank of Canada, Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri talks about the Bank’s contribution to advancing economic inclusion and opportunity for Indigenous peoples. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy
April 26, 2022 CFIF Meeting (April 26, 2022) Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Fixed-Income Forum
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022 Staff Analytical Note 2022-4 Kyle Boutilier, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Eshini Ekanayake, Louis Poirier, Peter Shannon, Akash Uppal, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.7% in 2021 to 2.9% by 2024. Compared with the April 2021 assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, 0.25 percentage points higher than staff’s last assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4
April 4, 2022 Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2022 In the first-quarter 2022 Business Outlook Survey, reports of labour-related capacity constraints and supply chain challenges remain widespread. Given these pressures and robust demand, businesses anticipate stronger price growth—and they expect the Russian invasion of Ukraine to add more cost pressures. As public health restrictions ease, firms that were hit hard during the pandemic anticipate their sales will pick up. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
January 17, 2022 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2021 This survey took place in November 2021 before the Omicron variant of COVID-19 began spreading broadly in Canada. In December, the number of COVID-19 cases rose dramatically and governments began to reimpose containment measures. Many Canadians think inflation will be high over the next two years because of supply disruptions caused by the pandemic. They are more concerned about inflation now than they were before the pandemic and believe it has become more difficult to control. However, near-term inflation expectations are not feeding into expectations for wage growth or longer-term inflation. Showing confidence in the labour market, workers are more likely than ever to want to change jobs. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations