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Understanding Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey

Staff Working Paper 2016-7 Simon Richards, Matthieu Verstraete
Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period.
February 24, 2016

Connecting the Dots: Elevated Household Debt and the Risk to Financial Stability

Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Guelph Chamber of Commerce Guelph, Ontario
Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses household debt, the risk it poses to financial stability and the role of the Bank of Canada.

To Share or Not to Share? Uncovered Losses in a Derivatives Clearinghouse

Staff Working Paper 2016-4 Radoslav Raykov
This paper studies how the allocation of residual losses affects trading and welfare in a central counterparty. I compare loss sharing under two loss-allocation mechanisms – variation margin haircutting and cash calls – and study the privately and socially optimal degree of loss sharing.

The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes

Staff Working Paper 2016-9 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin
This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions.
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