December 25, 2004 The Bank of Canada as Lender of Last Resort Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2004-2005 Fred Daniel, Walter Engert, Dinah Maclean As the ultimate provider of Canadian-dollar liquidity to the financial system, the Bank of Canada has the unique capacity to create Canadian-dollar claims on the central bank and the power to make secured loans or advances to chartered banks and other members of the Canadian Payments Association. The Bank supplies overnight credit on a routine basis through the Standing Liquidity Facility (SLF) to direct participants in the Large Value Transfer System, and Emergency Lending Assistance (ELA) to solvent deposit-taking institutions that require more substantial and prolonged credit. The authors review the policy framework that guides the Bank's lender-of-last-resort function, including the key issues, terms and conditions, and eligibility criteria associated with its SLF and ELA activities. Also discussed are foreign currency ELA, the relationship between SLF and ELA, systemic risk and Bank of Canada intervention, and the potential provision of liquidity to major clearing and settlement systems. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial stability, Lender of last resort, Payment clearing and settlement systems
November 21, 2004 Summary of the G-20 Workshop on Developing Strong Domestic Financial Markets, 26-27 April 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2004 Joerg Stephan, James Powell, Robert Lafrance, James Haley G-20 representatives, academics, market participants, and members of international financial institutions were brought together in Ottawa to explore the connection between robust financial markets and economic growth and development, share experiences, and to develop policy recommendations, where possible. Participants identified several areas they deemed critical for fostering strong domestic financial markets and reducing external vulnerability: sound macroeconomics policies, strengthened financial infrastructures and banking systems, and exchange rate flexibility for countries with widely open capital accounts. Papers presented in the six sessions and keynote address highlighted a number of issues, including currency mismatches, the sequence of financial liberalization and supervisory reforms, the development of local financial markets, infrastructure building and governance, and appropriate incentives. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, Financial institutions, International topics
November 22, 2004 The Evolving Financial System and Public Policy: Conference Highlights and Lessons Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2004 Pierre St-Amant, Carolyn A. Wilkins At the 12th annual Bank of Canada economic conference, held in Ottawa on 4 and 5 December 2003, representatives from various public and private organizations and Bank of Canada staff discussed papers presented on three key issues affecting the financial system: financial contagion, the implications of bank diversification, and financial sector regulation. Papers on financial contagion studied the effect of globalization on Canadian foreign-asset exposures, developed a general-equilibrium model of a competitive interfirm lending market in which firms can borrow or lend, and used market-based indicators to determine the probability that contagion can be generated by interbank exposures. The papers on bank diversification focused on the links between the changing behaviour of financial institutions and risk-return trade-offs. Issues of financial sector regulation included the relationship between governance and financial sector soundness, the theoretical basis of bank regulations for capital requirements, and the implications of bank capital requirements for the transmission of monetary policy. A panel discussion provided extended discussion of the conference papers. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services
November 23, 2004 Real Return Bonds: Monetary Policy Credibility and Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2004 Christopher Reid, Frédéric Dion, Ian Christensen The break-even inflation rate (BEIR) is calculated by comparing the yields on conventional and Real Return Bonds. Defined as the average rate of inflation that equates the expected returns on these two bonds, the BEIR has the potential to contain useful information about long-run inflation expectations. Yet the BEIR has been higher, on average, and more variable than survey measures of inflation expectations, which may be explained by the effects of premiums and distortions embedded in the BEIR. Because of the difficulty in accounting for these distortions, the BEIR should not be given a large weight as a measure of long-run inflation expectations at this time. However, as the Real Return Bond market continues to develop, the BEIR should become a more useful indicator of inflation expectations. At present, it demonstrates no clear advantage over survey measures and even past inflation rates in forecasting near-term inflation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing
December 22, 2003 Current Account Imbalances: Some Key Issues for the Major Industrialized Countries Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2003-2004 Jocelyn Jacob The resurgence of sizable current account imbalances in the major economies in recent years, particularly the tripling of the U.S. deficit, has led to renewed academic and public discussions about their sustainability. Jacob's main objective is to show that current account balances are simply the outcome of various relative structural and cyclical forces between trading partners. He reviews the factors behind the changes in the current account positions of the three largest industrial economies (the United States, Japan, and the euro area). Two strong determinants shaping the current account balances are the faster increase in U.S. productivity compared with that of other major economies and, more recently, the loosening in the U.S. fiscal stance. Jacob also reviews a range of outside assessments from such sources as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund, as well as the academic literature, to determine the possible risks to macroeconomic and financial stability. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics
December 23, 2003 The Comparative Growth of Goods and Services Prices Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2003-2004 Edith Gagnon, Patrick Sabourin, Sébastien Lavoie For several decades, the prices of services have been rising more rapidly than the prices of goods in Canada and the other major industrialized countries. In 2002, this gap between the growth rates of these two components of the consumer price index (CPI) widened considerably, leading researchers to ask if this was the beginning of a trend. Analysis reveals, however, that the gap is based on short-term dynamics and that it appears to be independent of the trend in the development of the overall price level. Evidence also shows that the gap is eventually reabsorbed. The authors examine a number of potential causes for the prices of services to rise faster than those of goods. These include the more rapid pace of productivity growth in the goods sector, the greater openness of goods to foreign trade, and stronger growth in the demand for services. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Productivity
January 23, 2002 Monetary Policy Report Update – January 2002 In the November Monetary Policy Report, the timing and extent of the recovery in economic activity in Canada this year was seen as depending crucially on geopolitical developments and on how quickly consumer and business confidence would return to normal. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
January 26, 2006 Monetary Policy Report Update – January 2006 The Canadian and global economies are evolving essentially in line with the Bank’s expectations. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
April 14, 2005 Monetary Policy Report – April 2005 The global economy has been unfolding largely as expected, and prospects for continued robust growth are quite favourable, especially over the near term. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
January 27, 2005 Monetary Policy Report Update – January 2005 The adjustment of the Canadian economy to major global developments continues to shape the economic outlook. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report