Regime-Switching Models: A Guide to the Bank of Canada Gauss Procedures Staff Working Paper 1996-3 Simon van Norden, Robert Vigfusson This paper is a user's guide to a set of Gauss procedures developed at the Bank of Canada for estimating regime-switching models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63
Monetary Rules When Economic Behaviour Changes Staff Working Paper 1999-8 Robert Amano, Donald Coletti, Tiff Macklem This paper examines the implications of changes in economic behaviour for simple inflation-forecast–based monetary rules of the type currently used at two inflation-targeting central banks. Three types of changes in economic behaviour are considered, changes that are motivated by developments in monetary and fiscal policy in the 1990s: changes in monetary policy credibility, changes in […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach Staff Working Paper 1996-1 Robert Vigfusson Since the early 1980s, models based on economic fundamentals have been poor at explaining the movements in the exchange rate (Messe 1990). In response to this problem, Frankel and Froot (1988) developed a model that uses two approaches to forecast the exchange rate: the fundamentalist approach, which bases the forecast on economic fundamentals, and the chartist approach, which bases the forecast on the past behaviour of the exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, G, G1, G12
An Intraday Analysis of the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention Staff Working Paper 1999-4 Neil Beattie, Jean-François Fillion This paper assesses the effectiveness of Canada's official foreign exchange intervention in moderating intraday volatility of the Can$/US$ exchange rate, using a 2-1/2-year sample of 10-minute exchange rate data. The use of high frequency data (higher than daily frequency) should help in assessing the impact of intervention since the foreign exchange market is efficient and […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
May 27, 1998 Globalized Financial Markets and Monetary Policy Remarks Gordon Thiessen La Conférence de Montréal Montréal, Quebec Globalization - that is, the growing integration and interdependence of national economies - is changing dramatically the economic landscape. Countries are trading more goods and services, an increasing number of firms now operate across national borders, and savers and borrowers have greater access than ever before to global financial markets. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
March 25, 1998 The Future Performance of the Canadian Economy Remarks Gordon Thiessen Canadian Club of Winnipeg Winnipeg, Manitoba It can take anywhere from one to two years for monetary actions to have their full effect on the economy. Because of this, the conduct of monetary policy must be based on a view of what the economy will be like - not tomorrow, not in a month - but rather in one to two years' time. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
January 20, 1999 Bank of Canada Governor Addresses Canadian Club of Ottawa Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen today reviewed the economic implications of the European currency union and its lessons for Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
April 20, 1999 Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Opening statement Gordon Thiessen Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Since we have recently tabled the Bank of Canada’s Annual Report in Parliament, I would also be happy to answer any questions you may have about our stewardship of the Bank. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
November 2, 1999 The Challenges for Canadian Monetary Policy in the Year 2000 Remarks Gordon Thiessen the Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island Monetary policy actions take a relatively long time to affect the economy and inflation—anywhere between 12 to 24 months. Because of this, central banks must always look ahead and must put in place today the monetary conditions that are needed to help keep the economy on a sustainable path down the road. By 'sustainable' I mean a situation where economic growth and job creation are not at risk from rising inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
September 23, 1998 Global uncertainties and the Canadian economy Remarks Gordon Thiessen St. John's Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland This past year, we have had to deal with the implications for our economy and our currency of increased global uncertainty and pressures arising from the problems that originated in Southeast Asia. I am sure that the effects of these developments, especially on primary commodities, such as oil and nickel, are already very familiar to Newfoundlanders. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks