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Recent events, such as the East Asian, Mexican, Scandinavian, and Argentinian crises, have sparked considerable interest in exploring how shocks experienced by one country can spread vis-à-vis real and nominal links to other countries' banking systems. Given the large costs associated with banking-system failures, both economists and policy-makers are interested in predicting the onset of banking crises and assessing the likelihood of contagion during crisis events.

Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a small open economy model in which consumers face limits to credit determined by the value of their housing stock. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the role of collateralized household debt in the Canadian business cycle.

The authors study the macroeconomic consequences of large military buildups using a New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) approach that combines nominal rigidities within imperfectly competitive goods and labour markets. They show that the predictions of the NNS framework generally are consistent with the sign, timing, and magnitude of how hours worked, after-tax real wages, and output actually respond to an upsurge in military purchases.

Since the start of the millennium, developments in the global economy have led to important changes throughout the Canadian economy and to serious challenges for many sectors and regions. Because nobody can anticipate precisely how the world will unfold, the best we can do is to ensure that our economy is as flexible as possible.

The Bank of Canada Act calls on us to "mitigate … fluctuations in the general level of production, trade, prices and employment, so far as may be possible within the scope of monetary action, and generally to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada." Over time, it has become clear that the best way for us to fulfill this mandate is to keep inflation low, stable, and predictable.

Debt strategy is defined as the manner in which a government finances an excess of government expenditures over revenues and any maturing debt issued in previous periods. The author gives a thorough qualitative description of the complexities of debt strategy analysis and then demonstrates that it is, in fact, a problem in stochastic optimal control.

Today, I want to share with all of you Canada's perspective on the design of an inflation-targeting system, some of the lessons we have learned over almost 15 years of experience with explicit inflation targets, and some of the challenges that remain. This topic is timely, because the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting agreement with the Canadian government is up for renewal next year, and I am pleased to note that, earlier today, the Government announced its intention to renew our agreement for another five years.

In recent years, there has been a lot of interest in Taylor-type rules. Evidence in the literature suggests that Taylor-type rules are optimal in a number of models and are fairly robust across different models.

Change is the central theme of my remarks today. First, I will talk about some of the changes that have taken place at the Bank of Canada over its 70-year history. Then, I'll talk about some of the changes that are currently taking place in the global economy, as well as how we see our economy - across Canada and right here in Manitoba - adjusting to these changes.

Rapid growth in emerging-market economies is driving up demand for commodities, and that has pushed up world prices for oil and many non-energy commodities. Meanwhile, productivity improvements in some countries and a competitive world environment are lowering the prices for some consumer goods, communications services, and computer equipment.