Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy: A Thematic Review Staff Discussion Paper 2022-2 Felipe Alves, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Katya Kartashova, Soyoung Lee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See, Yaz Terajima, Alexander Ueberfeldt The theory that rich economic diversity of businesses and households both affects and is shaped by economy-wide fluctuations has strong implications for monetary policy. This review places these insights in a Canadian context. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D25, D3, D31, E, E2, E22, E24, E5, E50, E52
January 27, 2022 Le Devoir Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada Interview with Le Devoir Content Type(s): Press, Media activities
January 31, 2022 CARR welcomes RBSL consultation on the potential cessation of CDOR The Canadian Alternative Reference Rate working group (CARR) welcomes the publication by the administrator of CDOR, Refinitiv Benchmark Services (UK) Limited (RBSL), of a consultation document on the potential permanent cessation of the Canadian Dollar Offered Rate (CDOR). Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
On the Wedge Between the PPI and CPI Inflation Indicators Staff Working Paper 2022-5 Shang-Jin Wei, Yinxi Xie We find that the CPI and PPI inflation indexes co-moved strongly throughout the late 20th century, but their correlation has fallen substantially since the early 2000s. We offer a structural explanation for this divergence based on the growth of global supply chains since 2000. This finding offers a unique perspective for the future design of optimal monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, F, F1, F11, F12, F4, F41, F6, F62
April 26, 2022 The Bank of Canada Releases Its Annual Report for 2021 Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada’s Annual Report for 2021 was tabled in the House of Commons today. The Report is now available on the Bank’s website. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
Bitcoin Awareness, Ownership and Use: 2016–20 Staff Discussion Paper 2022-10 Daniela Balutel, Marie-Hélène Felt, Gradon Nicholls, Marcel Voia In this paper, we examine trends in Canadian ownership of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from 2016 to 2020 using data from surveys conducted by the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51
Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature Staff Discussion Paper 2022-9 Matteo Cacciatore, Dmitry Matveev, Rodrigo Sekkel Central banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5
Cash and COVID-19: What happened in 2021 Staff Discussion Paper 2022-8 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Daneal O’Habib, Joy Wu, Julia Zhu Using data from the Bank Note Distribution System and consumer surveys, we find that bank notes in circulation remained high through 2021. Canadians continued to rely on electronic methods of payment, but a significant share also continued using cash for payments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54
Exports and the Exchange Rate: A General Equilibrium Perspective Staff Working Paper 2022-18 Patrick Alexander, Abeer Reza How do a country’s exports change when its currency depreciates? Does it matter which forces drive the exchange rate deprecation in the first place? We find that this relationship varies greatly depending on what drives exchange rate movements, and we conclude that the direct relationship between the exchange rate and exports is weak for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, International topics, Monetary policy transmission, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, F33, F4, F41
April 4, 2022 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2022 This survey took place in mid-February 2022 before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in March and provide some insight into how consumers perceive the effects of the conflict. Short-term inflation expectations have reached record-high levels because of supply disruptions and the COVID 19 pandemic. Consumers think the Russian invasion of Ukraine will make high inflation worse. Despite greater concerns about inflation today, longer-term expectations have remained stable and are below pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and that survey respondents believe the current rise in inflation will not last. Although workers anticipate significant price increases in the near term, they believe their wages will increase only modestly. This is a source of dissatisfaction for them. Despite expecting higher interest rates, consumers continue to anticipate strong spending growth on a broad range of goods and services. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations