International Capital Flows and Bond Risk Premia Staff Working Paper 2010-14 Jesus Sierra This paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, F, F3, F31, F32, F34, G, G1, G11, G12, G15
October 22, 2006 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2006 Cover page The "pretended" Bank of Upper Canada — Kingston (1819-22) The note is part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
December 21, 2002 Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2002-2003 Jeannine Bailliu, John Murray A series of major international financial crises in the 1990s, and the recent introduction of the euro, have renewed interest in alternative exchange rate systems. The choice of exchange rate regime is particularly relevant for emerging-market countries because other countries are perceived either as having no alternative to their current exchange rate arrangement or as highly unlikely to change. This article examines the evolution of exchange rate regimes in emerging markets over the past decade and compares the strengths and weaknesses of the various available systems. These include intermediate regimes, such as the adjustable pegged exchange rate popular throughout much of the post—war period, and the two extreme exchange rate regimes: permanently fixed or freely floating exchange rate regimes. Two recently proposed alternatives are also evaluated: the Managed Floating Plus and Baskets, Bands, and Crawling Pegs. Both try to combine the best elements of the flexible and fixed exchange rate systems, but the Managed Floating Plus is deemed to be the more promising alternative. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes
June 2, 2006 Another Look at the Inflation-Target Horizon Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2006 Donald Coletti, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins The conduct of monetary policy within an inflation-targeting framework requires the establishment of an inflation-target horizon, which is the average time it takes inflation to return to the target. Policy-makers have an interest in communicating this horizon, since it is likely to help anchor inflation expectations. This article focuses on the determination of the appropriate policy horizon by reporting on two recent Bank of Canada studies. The evidence suggests that the current target horizon of six to eight quarters remains appropriate. It is important to note that the duration of the optimal inflation-target horizon varies widely, depending on the combination of shocks to the economy. In rare cases when the financial accelerator is triggered by a persistent shock, such as an asset-price bubble, it may be appropriate to take a longer view of the inflation-target horizon. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission
January 21, 2003 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2002-2003 Cover page A Nineteenth-Century Court Case The note and court document shown on the cover form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photographed by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
June 21, 2006 Credibility with Flexibility: The Evolution of Inflation-Targeting Regimes, 1990–2006 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2006 Graydon Paulin Beginning with a review of the adoption of inflation targeting in a broad group of countries, Paulin focuses on changes in the design of inflation-targeting frameworks in light of fifteen years of accumulated experience. Included in the discussion are the use of numerical targets and ranges, the policy horizon, supporting institutional policy structures, and communication, including the publication of forecasts. A recurring theme is how much flexibility an inflation-targeting regime allows. The article concludes that the changes made to the frameworks have been relatively modest since their adoption, but in concert with the improved credibility that has resulted from central banks meeting their inflation-control targets, they have allowed an increasingly nuanced response to economic shocks. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
November 21, 2002 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2002 Cover page Business College Currency The artifacts pictured on the cover form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photographed by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
December 21, 2006 Financial System Review - December 2006 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
April 16, 2010 Senior Loan Officer Survey - First-Quarter 2010 The survey results point to an overall easing in business-lending conditions during the first quarter of 2010, following a stabilization of lending conditions in the last quarter of 2009. Both the price and non-price aspects of business lending eased during the first quarter. Content Type(s): Publications, Senior Loan Officer Survey
March 18, 2008 Canada's Experience with a Flexible Exchange Rate in the 1950s: Valuable Lessons Learned Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2008 Lawrence L. Schembri Schembri studies Canada's post-World War II experience in introducing a floating exchange rate, including its effects on the Canadian economy and its influence on the development of macroeconomic theory. In particular, Canada's flexible exchange rate and high degree of capital mobility with the United States provided an unprecedented experiment for macroeconomic policy. The successes and difficulties encountered by Canadian authorities in managing monetary and fiscal policy under this regime drew the interest of researchers at the International Monetary Fund and elsewhere and had a significant impact on the development of the Mundell-Fleming model, the path-breaking innovation in modern open-economy macroeconomics. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Exchange rate regimes, Monetary policy framework