June 15, 2011 Moderation Expected in Housing Market, Says Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney Media Relations Vancouver, British Columbia The Bank of Canada anticipates moderation in the Canadian housing market, says Governor Mark Carney in a speech to the Vancouver Board of Trade. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
Forecasting the Price of Oil Staff Working Paper 2011-15 Ron Alquist, Lutz Kilian, Robert Vigfusson We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47
May 16, 2011 Canada Is Adjusting to Global Economic Transformation, Says Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario While Canada’s economy remains relatively well positioned, it is being buffeted by a significant transformation of the global economy, which is driven by a combination of secular trends and cyclical forces, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
May 9, 2011 External Review of Economic Research Activities at the Bank of Canada and its Response The review was conducted by an external committee of eminent academic and practising research economists. The committee was asked to gauge the quality of the Bank's research and to make recommendations for improving the Bank's research environment.
Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP Staff Working Paper 2011-11 Philipp Maier We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47
April 4, 2011 Business Outlook Survey - Spring 2011 Businesses remain positive about the economic outlook, although some forward-looking indicators have eased from the levels recorded in recent surveys, and the strength in commodity prices has raised expectations for costs and inflation. Erratum: Please note that the legend for Chart 9 (French version only) should read as follows: au-dessus de 3 % , rather than au-dessous de 3 % Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
Belief Dispersion and Order Submission Strategies in the Foreign Exchange Market Staff Working Paper 2011-8 Ingrid Lo, Stephen Sapp This paper empirically examines how dispersions across investors beliefs influence traders order submission decisions in the foreign exchange market. Previous research has found that dispersion in traders beliefs regarding future macroeconomic announcements has a significant impact on both price dynamics and trading volume before the announcements in the foreign exchange and other financial markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1
The Private Equity Premium Puzzle Revisited Staff Working Paper 2011-6 Katya Kartashova In this paper, I extend the results of Moskowitz and Vissing-Jørgensen (2002) on the returns to entrepreneurial investments in the United States. First, following the authors’ methodology I replicate the original findings from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) for the period 1989–1998 and show that the returns to private and public equity are similar. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11, G12, G2, G24, G3, G31, G32
February 18, 2011 Global imbalances: the international monetary system and financial stability Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada contributed the article "Global imbalances: the international monetary system and financial stability" to the Banque de France's Financial Stability Review. Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
February 17, 2011 Payment Networks: A Review of Recent Research Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2010-2011 James Chapman, Lana Embree, Tom Roberts, Nellie Zhang In this article, the authors review work done at the Bank of Canada and at other central banks with the relatively new application of network analysis to the study of payments systems. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Payment clearing and settlement systems