December 18, 2001 The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2001–2002 Andy Haldane, Mark Kruger Over the past year and a half, authors Andy Haldane of the Bank of England and Mark Kruger of the Bank of Canada have been developing a framework for the resolution of international financial crises that aligns incentives for all parties in a way that deals with the crisis and preserves the integrity of the international financial system. The framework is built on principles, not rules. It attempts to be clear about the respective roles and responsibilities of the public and private sectors. A central element in shaping private sector expectations is knowledge that the official sector will behave predictably. Constraints on lending by the International Monetary Fund are a key step in that direction. They ensure that private sector involvement is a crucial part of crisis resolution, and they help encourage debtors and creditors to seek co-operative solutions to a crisis. Characterized by constraints, clarity, and orderliness, the framework has the potential to reduce the incidence and cost of financial crises. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): International topics
August 15, 2001 Analyzing the Monetary Aggregates Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2001 Dinah Maclean In recent years, the Bank has put renewed emphasis on analyzing monetary variables and on developing models that incorporate money as an active part of the transmission mechanism. In this article, Dinah Maclean describes how the monetary aggregates are used in the formulation of monetary policy analysis at the Bank, outlining the key tools and models used. The most important money-based model currently in use is the M1-VECM. In this model, deviations in the money supply from the long-term demand for money cause changes in inflation. The author briefly describes the "active-money" paradigm underlying this model and explains the key equations within it. Other simpler empirical models are also outlined, including single-equation indicator models for output based on the narrow aggregates, a neural network, and a model based on the broader aggregate M2++. A detailed technical annex provides details on model equations and coefficient values. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Monetary aggregates
Estimating the Structure of the Payment Network in the LVTS: An Application of Estimating Communities in Network Data Staff Working Paper 2010-13 James Chapman, Nellie Zhang In the Canadian large value payment system an important goal is to understand how liquidity is transferred through the system and hence how efficient the system is in settling payments. Understanding the structure of the underlying network of relationships between participants in the payment system is a crucial step in achieving the goal. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, D, D8, D85, G, G2, G20
April 9, 2009 Next Steps for Canadian Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Donald Coletti In 2006, the Bank initiated a research program exploring two alternatives to the current inflation-targeting framework: (i) lowering the inflation target and (ii) shifting to a price-level target. This article discusses progress to date, places the Bank's findings in the context of a broader literature, and identifies avenues for future research. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework
May 9, 1995 Interpreting recent changes in monetary aggregates Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1995 Kevin Clinton In 1994, broad monetary aggregates such as M2+ grew at an unusually slow rate, indicating a continuation of low inflation. Narrow money, M1, ballooned early in the year, partly for technical reasons. However, its overall deceleration for the year as a whole would be consistent with lower output growth in the first half of 1995 than was seen the year before. During the first half of 1994, there was a continued shift by investors from deposits into equity, bond and mortgage mutual funds. In the second half of the year, following a rise in interest rates and a fall in the yields posted by mutual funds, there was a movement back into M2+. In this annual review of the monetary aggregates, the author discusses the reasons for these shifts and their implications for M2+. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Monetary aggregates
May 9, 1995 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1995 Cover page Canada: sovereign die, 1908 The die is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by James Zagon. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
March 9, 2010 Monetary Policy Rules in an Uncertain Environment Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Gino Cateau, Stephen Murchison This article examines recent research on the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules: from simple rules to fully optimal monetary policy under commitment. The authors explain why uncertainty matters in the design of monetary policy rules and provide quantitative examples from the recent literature. They also present results for several policy rules in ToTEM, the Bank of Canada's main model for projection and analysis, including rules that respond to price level, rather than to inflation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework
November 7, 1994 The use of Canadian bank notes Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1994 Louise Hyland This article delves into the microeconomics of note circulation, reviewing main factors affecting the demand for bank notes over the last 50 years, including new technology such as automated banking machines. It also discusses trends in the average value of notes in circulation and in the demand for notes of different denominations. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Bank notes
March 9, 2010 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Discussion of recent research into three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil; inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy: a review of recent evidence and experience; examination of the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules; how, when, and why such revisions to many important economic variables occur. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Macroprudential Regulation and Systemic Capital Requirements Staff Working Paper 2010-4 Céline Gauthier, Alfred Lehar, Moez Souissi In the aftermath of the financial crisis, there is interest in reforming bank regulation such that capital requirements are more closely linked to a bank's contribution to the overall risk of the financial system. In our paper we compare alternative mechanisms for allocating the overall risk of a banking system to its member banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21