Optimum Currency Areas and Shock Asymmetry: A Comparison of Europe and the United States Staff Working Paper 1994-1 Nick Chamie, Alain DeSerres, René Lalonde Since the early 1980s, models based on economic fundamentals have been poor at explaining the movements in the exchange rate (Messe 1990). In response to this problem, Frankel and Froot (1988) developed a model that uses two approaches to forecast the exchange rate: the fundamentalist approach, which bases the forecast on economic fundamentals, and the chartist approach, which bases the forecast on the past behaviour of the exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, G, G1, G12
December 6, 1999 The Canadian economy, productivity, and our standard of living Remarks Gordon Thiessen The Fraser Institute Vancouver, British Columbia Over the past couple of years, there has been considerable debate about productivity and our standard of living in Canada. For the most part, the discussion of these issues has been useful, but at times it has been somewhat confusing. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico Staff Working Paper 1999-10 Patrick Osakwe, Lawrence L. Schembri This paper examines the impact of a collapsing exchange rate regime on output in an open economy in which shocks to capital flows and exports predominate. A sticky-price rational expectations model is used to compare the variability of output under the collapsing regime to that under alternative fixed and flexible regimes. Output is found to […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41
Long-Run Demand for M1 Staff Working Paper 1995-11 Scott Hendry The goal of this paper is to investigate and estimate long-run relationships among M1, prices, output and interest rates, with a view to determining if there is a stable relationship that can be interpreted as long-run money demand. The paper uses a maximum-likelihood multiple-equation cointegration technique, developed by Johansen, to fit a system of equations […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary aggregates
The Exchange Rate Regime and Canada's Monetary Order Staff Working Paper 1999-7 David Laidler It is a mistake to debate the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes for Canada independently of other features of the monetary order. A coherent order requires a well-defined goal for monetary policy, one that the authorities are capable of achieving, and that anchors private sector expectations. For it to be liberal, the relevant authorities […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F3, F31
Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets Staff Working Paper 1999-6 Ben Fung, Scott Mitnick, Eli Remolona Theory and empirical evidence suggest that the term structure of interest rates reflects risk premiums as well as market expectations about future inflation and real interest rates. We propose an approach to extracting such premiums and expectations by exploiting both the comovements among interest rates across the yield curve and between two countries, Canada and […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G15
The Quantity of Money and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 1999-5 David Laidler The relationships among the quantity theory of money, monetarism and policy regimes based on money-growth and inflation targeting are briefly discussed as a prelude to an exposition of alternative views of money's role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The passive-money view treats the money supply as an endogenous variable that plays no role […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E51, E52
March 22, 1999 Financial sector reform, the economy, and monetary policy Remarks Gordon Thiessen the Mennonite Savings and Credit Union Kitchener, Ontario I am delighted to be with you this evening to celebrate the 35th annual meeting of the Mennonite Savings and Credit Union. On this occasion, I propose to speak about the Canadian economy and monetary policy. But given this audience, I thought I might start with some remarks on the future of the Canadian financial sector - a subject that has certainly grabbed its share of headlines over the past year! Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
May 30, 1997 Flexible Exchange Rates in a World of Low Inflation Remarks Gordon Thiessen FOREX '97 Conference Toronto, Ontario There is a good deal of discussion these days about Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in Europe - about the benefits and difficulties of organizing such a union. However, today I would like to examine a somewhat different issue, one that is at the other end of the spectrum; namely, How is the international system of flexible exchange rates working these days? Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
September 29, 1998 Bank Rate Lowered by ¼ Percentage Point to 5¾ Per Cent Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today lowered its Bank Rate by ¼ of one percentage point to 5¾ per cent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases