The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence Staff Working Paper 2022-11 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev Central banks in many advanced economies enjoy a high degree of independence, which protects monetary policy decisions from political influence. But how should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policy-makers? We examine whether a central bank should design a monetary policy framework that prescribes acting conditionally on how fiscal policy behaves. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E62
Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning Staff Working Paper 2022-10 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52
Central Bank Liquidity Facilities and Market Making Staff Working Paper 2022-9 David Cimon, Adrian Walton We create a theoretical model of central bank asset purchases. The model helps explain how, in a crisis, these purchases ease pressures on investment dealers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, L, L1, L10
March 3, 2022 Economic progress report: Controlling inflation Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem CFA Society Toronto Toronto, Ontario Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and what’s driving inflation in Canada. He also discusses how the Bank will manage the next step in the Bank’s balance sheet operations – quantitative tightening. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet
February 18, 2022 Operational details for upcoming secondary market purchases of Government of Canada securities (February 28-March 11) As previously announced, the Bank of Canada (the Bank) launched on April 1, 2020 a program to purchase Government of Canada securities in the secondary market – the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP). Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program
Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies Staff Working Paper 2022-6 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Diego Perez We study how different types of monetary policy shape the distributional effects of external economic shocks on households’ consumption in a small open economy. Our results present a trade-off between maintaining overall stabilization and controlling consumption inequality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4, F41, F44
Quantifying the Economic Benefits of Payments Modernization: the Case of the Large-Value Payment System Staff Working Paper 2021-64 Neville Arjani, Fuchun Li, Zhentong Lu Canada is undertaking a major initiative to modernize its payments ecosystem. The modernized ecosystem is expected to bring significant benefits to Canadian financial markets and the overall economy. We develop an empirical framework to quantify the economic benefits of modernizing the payment system in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, E, E4, E42, G, G1, G2, G28