BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Appendix and References Technical Report No. 125 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Alex Charron Since 2014, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. The database is posted on the BoC’s website and is updated annually in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15
It takes a panel to predict the future: What the stock market says about future economic growth in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2023-9 Greg Adams, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Valuation ratios in the Canadian stock market can help reveal investors’ expectations about future economic growth because the impact of economic growth on valuation ratios can vary across industries. We find that this variation helps produce accurate forecasts of future growth of real gross domestic product in Canada. The forecasts from our model declined by just over 3 percentage points between January 2022 and February 2023—a period when the Bank of Canada rapidly increased the overnight rate. As well, we find that interest-rate-sensitive industries had an outsized contribution to this expected slowdown in growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E47, E5, E52
November 20, 2023 CARR Meeting (November 20, 2023) Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations Staff Working Paper 2023-63 Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C9, C93, D, D8, D84, E, E5, E59, E7
Supporting the Transition to Net-Zero Emissions: The Evolving Role of Central Banks Staff Discussion Paper 2023-31 Karen McGuinness While climate change was largely tackled by government policies in the past, central banks are increasingly grappling with the risks climate change poses. They are evaluating their operational policies to reflect these risks and the transition to a net-zero economy. This paper explores the trade-offs and considerations central banks face. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E5, E58, E6, E63, G, G3, G32, Q, Q5, Q54
December 15, 2023 Bank of Canada Media Interview – BNN Bloomberg Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, gave an interview today to Amanda Lang of BNN Bloomberg. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
December 6, 2023 Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S. Staff Working Paper 2023-57 Anna Maria Mayda, Mine Z. Senses, Walter Steingress Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, H, H4, H41, H7, J, J6, J61, J68, R, R5
November 22, 2023 Ending the pain of high inflation Remarks Tiff Macklem Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce Saint John, New Brunswick Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem explains how high inflation is hurting Canadians and how monetary policy is working to bring inflation back to target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Price stability
November 22, 2023 Fighting to get back to low inflation Speech summary Tiff Macklem Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce Saint John, New Brunswick Governor Tiff Macklem outlines how high inflation is hurting Canadians and how monetary policy is working to bring it down. He also explains why the Bank of Canada must stay the course in its inflation fight. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Price stability