April 30, 2019 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario Good morning, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Once again, Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be with you to talk about the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. Six months ago, when we last appeared before this committee, we talked about some very positive developments. The Canadian economy […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments
March 31, 2019 Research Update - March 2019 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
April 24, 2019 Monetary Policy Report – April 2019 The Bank’s new forecast calls for real economic growth of 1.2 per cent this year, 2.1 per cent next year and 2.0 per cent in 2021. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Bond Funds and Fixed-Income Market Liquidity: A Stress-Testing Approach Technical Report No. 115 Rohan Arora, Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Ryan Shotlander This report provides a detailed technical description of a stress test model for investment funds called Ceto. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14, G2, G20, G23
Flight from Safety: How a Change to the Deposit Insurance Limit Affects Households’ Portfolio Allocation Staff Working Paper 2019-29 H. Evren Damar, Reint Gropp, Adi Mordel Deposit insurance protects depositors from failing banks, thus making insured deposits risk-free. When a deposit insurance limit is increased, some deposits that previously were uninsured become insured, thereby increasing the share of risk-free assets in households’ portfolios. This increase cannot simply be undone by households, because to invest in uninsured deposits, a household must first invest in insured deposits up to the limit. This basic insight is the starting point of the analysis in this paper. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G28, L, L5, L51
Using Exchange-Traded Funds to Measure Liquidity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market Staff Analytical Note 2019-25 Rohan Arora, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jabir Sandhu, Jun Yang We introduce a new proxy for measuring corporate bond liquidity, using the price of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold corporate bonds. It measures the average liquidity across 900 corporate bonds every day, many more than other proxies used in previous Bank of Canada analysis. The new proxy nonetheless paints a very similar picture of liquidity conditions and confirms the previous findings: the liquidity of bonds has generally improved since 2010. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
A Tale of Two Countries: Cash Demand in Canada and Sweden Staff Discussion Paper 2019-7 Walter Engert, Ben Fung, Björn Segendorf Cash use for payments has been steadily decreasing in many countries, including Canada and Sweden. This might suggest an evolution toward a cashless society. But in Canada, cash in circulation relative to GDP has been stable for decades and has even increased in recent years. By contrast, the cash-to-GDP ratio in Sweden has been falling steadily. What has caused this difference? Are there lessons to be learned from comparing the Canadian and Swedish experiences? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5
The Formation of House Price Expectations in Canada: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment Staff Analytical Note 2019-24 Marc-André Gosselin, Mikael Khan, Matthieu Verstraete We conduct a randomized information experiment leveraging the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We provide causal evidence that respondents revise both their short- and medium-term expectations of future house price growth in a way that is consistent with observed short-term momentum in house prices. However, empirically, house price growth tends to revert to its mean in the medium term. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, R, R2, R21
Tail Index Estimation: Quantile-Driven Threshold Selection Staff Working Paper 2019-28 Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries, Laurens de Haan The most extreme events, such as economic crises, are rare but often have a great impact. It is difficult to precisely determine the likelihood of such events because the sample is small. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58
An Application of Shapley Value Cost Allocation to Liquidity Savings Mechanisms Staff Working Paper 2019-26 Rodney J. Garratt Liquidity demands in real-time gross settlement payment systems can be enormous. To reduce the liquidity requirement, central banks around the world have implemented liquidity savings mechanisms (LSMs). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C7, C72, E, E5, E58