A Non-Paradoxical Interpretation of the Gibson Paradox Staff Working Paper 1998-22 Serge Coulombe In this study, we show how, to yield the real cost of borrowing, the price level can be combined with the nominal interest rate in a monetary regime where the level of prices is trend stationary. We show that the price level then conveys intertemporal information in a way similar to nominal interest rates. We […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates
December 15, 1998 Recent economic and financial developments Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1998-1999 This commentary, completed in mid-January, discusses economic and financial developments in Canada since the publication of the November Monetary Policy Report. Conditions in world financial markets have improved since November, but the global economic environment is still uncertain. The main uncertainty centres on Japan, which remains in recession. If bank reforms and stimulative fiscal measures are effectively implemented in that country, a gradual recovery should begin there during 1999. The economic expansion in other major industrialized countries, which together account for over half of world output, is expected to remain well sustained. The U.S. economy, in particular, continues to outstrip expectations and even if it slows, as expected, will likely still operate at high levels. In Canada, indicators of domestic demand remain relatively firm, although the growth of monetary and credit aggregates has moderated. The Bank's outlook for 1999 continues to be one of ongoing economic expansion. Inflation is expected to stay in the lower half of the target range of 1 to 3 per cent. Update on 23 February 1999: The global economic environment in which Canada operates is still uncertain. In Japan, there is little sign yet that the economy is about to move out of its slump, while in Europe, the latest data point to a softening in economic activity. In sharp contrast, the U.S. economy continues to outstrip expectations, ending 1998 with growth of 5.6 per cent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter—much stronger growth than had been anticipated earlier. Despite lingering economic uncertainty, global financial markets have been much more stable compared with last autumn and do not seem to have been substantially affected by the events in Brazil. This would appear to reflect the effects of reductions in official interest rates around the world since the autumn as well as the success some emerging-market economies have had in dealing with their problems. As a result, international investors and markets seem to have a renewed sense of their ability to assess and differentiate among debtor countries as well as other borrowers. Here in Canada, even if we allow for the effects of temporary factors (such as the return to normal operations following the end of major labour disruptions), the underlying momentum of the economy is healthy. While resource-based export revenues remain weak, exports of other goods, particularly automotive products, surged in the closing months of 1998, bolstered by continued strong U.S. demand and Canada's improved competitive position. Growth in consumer spending eased through the latter part of 1998, mainly because of the effects on confidence of last autumn's financial turbulence and the end of financing incentives on automobile purchases. The reversal of these factors should have a beneficial effect on consumer demand early in 1999. Housing starts recovered in the fourth quarter, following the resolution of labour disputes, while business investment continued to expand modestly. The robust, broad-based employment gains recorded through the fourth quarter carried into January 1999. On balance, recent data suggest that real GDP increased by about 4 per cent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter—at the upper end of the range expected at the time the commentary was completed. The latest data point to core inflation fluctuating around the lower end of the inflation-control target range of 1 to 3 per cent. While upward pressure on the price level from the past exchange rate depreciation continues, the dampening effects of ongoing intense retail competition, excess supply in product markets, and restrained unit labour costs have kept overall inflation somewhat below expectations. Improved financial market conditions, coupled with the general firmness of recent domestic economic data and a slightly more favourable outlook for commodity prices, have supported a stronger Canadian dollar since completion of the commentary. Because of this, monetary conditions have tightened somewhat further since mid-January. With a measure of stability returning to global financial markets, concerns about the effects of financial volatility on consumer and business confidence in Canada have diminished. As noted in the commentary, such concerns were an important consideration for the Bank in the period following the Russian crisis, when particular emphasis had to be placed on calming financial markets. The easing of these pressures has made it possible to refocus attention on the medium-term policy objective of keeping the trend of inflation inside the target range. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments
December 14, 1998 Downward wage rigidity Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1998-1999 Allan Crawford, Seamus Hogan There has recently been considerable discussion about the ability of inflation to facilitate the adjustment of prices and wages and thus enhance economic performance. The discussion centres on whether wages are downwardly rigid. Wages are said to be downwardly rigid if it is difficult for the wages of some workers to fall despite underlying supply and demand pressures for decreases. Some authors have suggested that if downward nominal wage rigidity is prevalent it would be desirable to select a positive rate of inflation as the target for monetary policy. In this article, the authors evaluate the wage-rigidity hypothesis. They first examine the empirical evidence to assess whether the degree of downward rigidity is significant in Canada. They then analyze some key assumptions of the wage-rigidity hypothesis and its implications for employment. They also look at the empirical evidence on whether the combination of downward wage rigidity and low inflation has reduced employment. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits
December 13, 1998 Survey of the Canadian foreign exchange and derivatives markets Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1998-1999 Robert Ogrodnick, Judy DiMillo In April 1998, the Bank of Canada conducted its triennial survey of activity in the Canadian foreign exchange and derivatives markets. This was part of a coordinated international effort in which 43 countries carried out similar surveys. The foreign exchange market in Canada is the 11th largest in the world, and the Canadian dollar is the 7th most-traded currency globally. The average daily turnover of traditional foreign exchange transactions has grown by 23 per cent (to US$37 billion) since the last survey in 1995. Although this growth was substantial, the rate of increase has declined steadily since the survey began in 1983. The average daily turnover for single-currency interest rate derivatives during April 1998 was US$6.4 billion, an increase of 48 per cent over the previous survey. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets
December 12, 1998 Conference summary: Information in financial asset prices Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1998-1999 Kevin Clinton, Mark Zelmer This article summarizes the proceedings of a conference hosted by the Bank of Canada in May 1998. This was the second Bank conference to focus directly on issues concerning financial markets. The topic for 1998—the extraction of information from the prices of financial assets—has been an area of extensive research by central banks worldwide because of its connection to monetary policy. The Bank wanted to encourage such work by Canadian researchers as well as solicit feedback on work conducted internally. It also wanted to broaden the understanding of the interplay in the markets between central banks and other participants. It therefore assembled a wide mix of researchers, central bankers, and market participants. The summary briefly outlines the papers presented as well as the wrap-up discussion. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets
December 7, 1998 The Canadian economy and monetary policy in unsettled times Remarks Gordon Thiessen Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce Victoria, British Columbia When the Asian crisis erupted in the summer of 1997, few observers anticipated that international financial markets would still be under its influence more than a year later. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
December 7, 1998 Bank of Canada Governor Addresses Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce Media Relations Victoria, British Columbia Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen today reviewed the impact of turmoil in the global economy and international financial markets on Canada's economy and monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
Une nouvelle méthode d'estimation de l'écart de production et son application aux États-Unis, au Canada et à l'Allemagne Staff Working Paper 1998-21 René Lalonde, Jennifer Page, Pierre St-Amant This study introduces a new method for identifying the output gap, based on the estimation of multivariate autoregression (VAR) models. This approach, which involves using restrictions to identify structural shocks that have only a transitory effect on output but that affect the trend inflation rate, is compared with the decomposition method proposed by Blanchard and […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers
November 19, 1998 Pilot Repurchase Operation Call for Tenders Ron Morrow The following pilot repurchase operation will be conducted by the Bank of Canada on behalf of the Government of Canada, subject to the "Standard Terms for Repurchase Operations of Government of Canada Marketable Bonds." Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
November 19, 1998 Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Opening statement Gordon Thiessen Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Mr. Chairman, my colleagues and I always welcome our appearances before your committee. We released our latest Monetary Policy Report this past Monday. It covers a broad range of economic and monetary issues and provides an account of our policy actions and their results. The ultimate objective of Canadian monetary policy is to help create […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements