November 13, 1997 Statistical measures of the trend rate of inflation Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1997 Thérèse Laflèche As a guide for the conduct of monetary policy, most central banks make use of a trend inflation index similar to that employed by the Bank of Canada: the CPI excluding food, energy, and the effect of indirect taxes. In addition to their basic reference index, some central banks regularly publish statistical measures of the trend rate of inflation. The method used for producing these measures is, for the most part, based on the hypothesis that extreme price fluctuations generally reflect temporary shocks to the inflation rate, rather than its underlying trend. In this paper, the author offers a broad survey of studies on the measurement of trend inflation that have been published by the Bank of Canada and presents the results of the most recent work on the subject. Particular attention is paid to two statistical measures that the Bank follows more closely than other measures; namely, the CPIX, a price index that excludes eight of the most volatile CPI components, and CPIW, a measure that retains all the components of the overall index but gives a lower weighting to the most volatile. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices
November 12, 1997 Clearing and settlement systems and the Bank of Canada Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1997 Clyde Goodlet Clearing and settlement systems are essential to the smooth functioning of a modern market-based economy such as Canada's. During the past decade, there have been significant efforts in Canada and abroad to improve electronic clearing and settlement systems that handle payments obligations, either uniquely or in conjunction with transactions related to the purchase and sale of a broad range of financial instruments such as debt, equity, foreign exchange, or derivatives. This article examines some of the risks faced by participants and end-users of these systems and reviews the Bank of Canada's role in relation to these systems. For a number of years, the Bank has been involved informally with major clearing and settlement systems with a view to ensuring that systemic risk is adequately controlled. In July 1996, the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act was proclaimed. This Act formalized the role of the Bank in the oversight of clearing and settlement systems for the purpose of controlling systemic risk. The article provides an overview of the Bank's responsibilities. It also describes certain new powers that the Act made available to the Bank that could be exercised in its dealings with clearing and settlement systems. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems
Modelling the Behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach Staff Working Paper 1997-19 Iris Claus Cyclical contractions are often referred to as inventory cycles, in part because movements in inventories can amplify cyclical fluctuations in output. An unanticipated slowing in demand generally leads to an unintended buildup of inventories: only with a lag do firms adjust production and their actual holding of inventories relative to the desired level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22
October 7, 1997 Challenges ahead for monetary policy Remarks Gordon Thiessen Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Today, I would like to talk about some of the important issues and challenges facing monetary policy in the period ahead and how the Bank of Canada proposes to deal with them. This is not an unusual topic for me since the business of central banking is seldom without challenges. But what a difference the past two years have made to the challenges we face! Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
October 1, 1997 Bank Rate Raised by ¼ Percentage Point Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today raised the Bank Rate and its operating band for the overnight rate by 1/4 of one percentage point. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
September 16, 1997 The recent economic record in Canada and the challenges ahead for monetary policy Remarks Gordon Thiessen New England-Canadian Business Council Boston, Massachusetts It has been a little over two years since my last public speech to an audience in the United States. During this time, a lot has happened in terms of economic developments in our two countries. One thing that continues to impress me is the remarkable performance of the U.S. economy, which has achieved six years of steady economic expansion, with high rates of job creation and low inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
September 8, 1997 Change in Issuance Pattern of Treasury Bills Beginning with the 16 September Auction Media Relations On 5 August 1997, Secretary of State (International Financial Institutions) Jim Peterson announced on behalf of Finance Minister Paul Martin that beginning with the 16 September 1997 auction. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States Staff Working Paper 1997-20 Iris Claus A monetary authority with the primary objective of price stability has to distinguish between temporary price shocks and persistent shocks to the rate of inflation. A measure of underlying inflation, therefore, has an important role to play as a guideline for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
Les marchés du travail régionaux : une comparaison entre le Canada et les États-Unis Staff Working Paper 1997-17 Mario Lefebvre The purpose of this study is to compare the behaviour of regional labour markets in Canada and the United States. The study shows that the degree of persistence of unemployment is significantly higher in the provinces of Canada than it is in the various American regions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24
August 14, 1997 The fiscal impact of privatization in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Summer 1997 Mylène Levac, Philip Wooldridge Privatization—the transfer of activities from the public to the private sector—gained international prominence in the 1980s because of the need to reduce budget deficits and growing concerns about the efficiency of state-owned enterprises and government bureaucracies. This article examines privatization in Canada and its effect on governments' fiscal positions. Privatization has generally been less rapid and extensive in Canada than elsewhere, partly because of the comparatively moderate size of our public sector. Nevertheless, federal, provincial, and municipal governments have increasingly reduced their direct involvement in the Canadian economy by selling Crown corporations, contracting with private firms to deliver public services, and transferring the development of public infrastructure projects to the private sector. The fiscal impact of privatizing Crown corporations varies with such factors as the profitability of the enterprise, the size of the government's initial investment, and past write-downs. In general, when privatizations are part of a broader effort to improve public finances, they can contribute to fiscal consolidation by reducing budgetary requirements and debt levels. When services and infrastructure projects are privatized, it is expected that more efficient private sector management will reduce government expenditures. For example, a private consortium may be better able to manage the financial risks involved in building an infrastructure facility, such as cost overruns or the withdrawal of contractors, than the public sector. The key to raising efficiency and lowering costs, however, is competition, not privatization per se. Therefore, the cost savings arising from the privatization of services or public works depend crucially on the terms of the contract. Overall, when structured to improve economic efficiency, privatization is likely to enhance the economy's performance, thereby producing long-term economic and budgetary gains. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Fiscal policy