Forecasting with Many Models: Model Confidence Sets and Forecast Combination Staff Working Paper 2013-11 Jon D. Samuels, Rodrigo Sekkel A longstanding finding in the forecasting literature is that averaging forecasts from different models often improves upon forecasts based on a single model, with equal weight averaging working particularly well. This paper analyzes the effects of trimming the set of models prior to averaging. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53
April 23, 2013 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Opening statement Mark Carney House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario Good morning. Tiff and I are pleased to be here with you today to discuss the April Monetary Policy Report, which the Bank published last week. Global economic growth has evolved broadly as anticipated in January. In the United States, the economic expansion is continuing at a modest pace, with gradually strengthening private demand partly […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
April 22, 2013 Completing the G20 reform agenda for strengthening over the counter derivatives markets Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada and Chair of the Financial Stability Board, contributed the article "Completing the G20 reform agenda for strengthening over-the-counter derivatives markets" to the Banque de France's Financial Stability Review. Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
April 22, 2013 Access to central counterparties: why it matters and how it is changing Timothy Lane, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, contributed the article “Access to central counterparties: why it matters and how it is changing” to the Banque de France's Financial Stability Review. Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Staff Working Paper 2013-10 Antonio Diez de los Rios This paper proposes a novel regression-based approach to the estimation of Gaussian dynamic term structure models that avoids numerical optimization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12
An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt Staff Working Paper 2013-9 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21
April 22, 2013 Annual Report 2012 2012 was a year of tentative recovery for the world economy, but considerable accomplishment for the Bank of Canada as it worked to promote the economic and financial well-being of Canadians. The 2012 Annual Report provides a Message from the Governor, highlights key achievements over the year, describes the Bank’s corporate governance, and presents financial statements in conjunction with Management’s Discussion and Analysis. Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report
April 22, 2013 The Bank of Canada Releases Its Annual Report for 2012 Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada’s Annual Report for 2012 was tabled in the House of Commons today. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
April 19, 2013 Weekly Financial Statistics - 19 April 2013 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
April 17, 2013 Release of the Monetary Policy Report Opening statement Mark Carney Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements