Do We Need the IMF to Resolve a Crisis? Lessons from Past Episodes of Debt Restructuring Staff Working Paper 2007-10 Philipp Maier This study investigate how debt restructurings have evolved over the decades. Debtors and creditors have a long history of engaging an outsider – a “third party”, such as the IMF – to organise and facilitate debt restructurings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, F, F3, N, N1, N2
Best Instruments for Market Discipline in Banking Staff Working Paper 2007-9 Greg Caldwell The author develops a dynamic model of banking competition to determine which capital instrument is most effective in disciplining banks' risk choice. Comparisons are conducted between equity, subordinated debentures (SD), and uninsured deposits (UD) as funding sources. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28
Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation Staff Working Paper 2007-8 Frédérick Demers, Calista Cheung This paper evaluates the performance of static and dynamic factor models for forecasting Canadian real output growth and core inflation on a quarterly basis. We extract the common component from a large number of macroeconomic indicators, and use the estimates to compute out-of-sample forecasts under a recursive and a rolling scheme with different window sizes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37
Technology Shocks and Business Cycles: The Role of Processing Stages and Nominal Rigidities Staff Working Paper 2007-7 Louis Phaneuf, Nooman Rebei This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general equilibrium model that realistically accounts for an input-output linkage between firms operating at different stages of processing. Firms face technological change which is specific to their processing stage and charge new prices according to stage-specific Calvo-probabilities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32
February 6, 2007 Promoting Stability, Confidence and Well-being Remarks David Longworth Greater Kitchener Waterloo Chamber of Commerce Waterloo, Ontario The strengths of the twin cities - in research, advanced manufacturing, and information technology, among other sectors - are well known. Less well known, perhaps, is the region's success in responding effectively to changes in the world economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Monetary Policy Committees in Action: Is There Room for Improvement? Staff Working Paper 2007-6 Philipp Maier More than 80 central banks use a committee to take monetary policy decisions. The composition of the committee and the structure of the meeting can affect the quality of the decision making. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D7, D70, E, E5, E58
Impact of Electronic Trading Platforms on the Brokered Interdealer Market for Government of Canada Benchmark Bonds Staff Working Paper 2007-5 Natasha Khan This study examines the impact of increased transparency, brought about by the introduction of three electronic trading systems, on the brokered interdealer market for Government of Canada benchmark securities. Using the CanPX dataset for the 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year benchmarks, the paper finds some evidence of decreased bid-ask spreads for the 30-year benchmark in the months following the introduction of the electronic platforms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G14
Price Discovery in Canadian Government Bond Futures and Spot Markets Staff Working Paper 2007-4 Christopher Chung, Bryan Campbell, Scott Hendry In this paper we look at the relative information content of cash and futures prices for Canadian Government bonds. We follow the information-share approaches introduced by Hasbrouck (1995) and Harris et al (1995), applying the techniques in Gonzalo-Granger (1995), to evaluate the relative contributions of trading in the cash and futures markets to the price discovery process. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13, G14
Time-Consistent Control in Non-Linear Models Staff Working Paper 2007-3 Steve Ambler, Florian Pelgrin We show how to use optimal control theory to derive optimal time-consistent Markov-perfect government policies in nonlinear dynamic general equilibrium models, extending the result of Cohen and Michel (1988) for models with quadratic objective functions and linear dynamics. We replace private agents' costates by flexible functions of current states in the government's maximization problem. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E6, E61, E62
Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada Staff Working Paper 2007-2 Rose Cunningham, Ilan Kolet Housing wealth is a large component of total wealth and plays an important role in aggregate business cycles. In this paper, we explore data on real house price cycles at the aggregate level and city level for the United States and Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C4, C41, E, E3, E32, R, R2, R21