January 20, 2025 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2024 Results from the CSCE show that consumer sentiment improved this quarter, mainly due to recent interest rate cuts and the expectation of further cuts ahead. Consumers reported stronger spending plans. Still, they reported that high prices of many goods and services, economic uncertainty and elevated housing costs continue to weigh on spending decisions. Consumer confidence in the labour market has weakened and is now slightly below the survey average. Consumers’ inflation expectations have largely returned to historical norms. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
January 20, 2025 The Bank of Canada releases the fourth quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations On Monday, January 20, 2025, the Bank of Canada will release the fourth quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
January 20, 2025 Release: Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations 10:30 (ET) The Business Outlook Survey is a summary of interviews conducted by the Bank's regional offices with business leaders from about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada's gross domestic product. The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting Staff Working Paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37
January 17, 2025 Bank of Canada releases review of exceptional policy actions taken during the pandemic Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada’s exceptional policy actions during the COVID-19 pandemic provided important support for the economy during the unprecedented shock, says a review published today. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
January 17, 2025 Release: Review of Bank of Canada’s exceptional policy actions during the COVID-19 pandemic 11:00 (ET) The review examines the exceptional policy actions undertaken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and highlights lessons that will shape the Bank’s response in future crises. The Bank will also publish an assessment of the review by a panel of independent external experts as well as a response from the Bank’s Governing Council. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
January 17, 2025 Release of the Bank of Canada’s review of exceptional pandemic measures On Friday, January 17, 2025, the Bank of Canada will publish its report on the exceptional policy actions undertaken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The documents will also include a review by an external panel of experts, and a response from the Bank’s Governing Council. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
January 17, 2025 Review of the Bank of Canada’s Exceptional Policy Actions During the Pandemic: Executive summary This review looks at the effectiveness of the Bank’s exceptional policy actions during the pandemic. It also draws several lessons that will help shape future decisions should these tools be needed again. Content Type(s): Background materials