A Micro Approach to the Issue of Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from the 19881990 Labour Market Activity Survey Staff Working Paper 1997-12 Gordon Wilkinson This paper uses a rich set of microeconomic labour market data—the 198890 Labour Market Activity Survey published by Statistics Canada—to test whether there is negative duration dependence in unemployment spells. It updates and extends similar work carried out by Jones (1995) who used the 198687 Labour Market Activity Survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24
A Band-Aid Solution to Inflation Targeting Staff Working Paper 1997-11 Robert Amano, Richard Black, Marcel Kasumovich This paper reviews selectively the literature on exchange rate target zones and corresponding methodologies and examines whether they can be used to analyse the inflation-control problem. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E50
The Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Information Content about Medium-Term Inflation Staff Working Paper 1997-10 Jim Day, Ron Lange This paper examines the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and future changes in inflation for Canada using a newly constructed par-value yield series. The main conclusion of the empirical work is that the slope of the nominal term structure from 1- to 5-year maturities is a reasonably good predictor of future changes in inflation over these horizons. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43
May 1, 1997 Price Stability, Inflation Targets and Monetary Policy Proceedings of a conference - May 1997 (proceedings volume, available in electronic format only) Content Type(s): Conferences and workshops
April 23, 1997 Bank of Canada Announces Appointment of Senior Regional Representatives Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today announced the appointment of senior representatives who will staff its five regional offices across Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
Mesures du taux d'inflation tendanciel Staff Working Paper 1997-9 Thérèse Laflèche In this paper, the author calculates new measures of the trend inflation rate using changes in the components of total CPI; the hypothesis is that extreme fluctuations in certain prices reflect temporary supply shocks rather than any basic price trend. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
Implementation of Monetary Policy in a Regime with Zero Reserve Requirements Staff Working Paper 1997-8 Kevin Clinton Monetary policy can be implemented effectively without reserve requirements as long as cost incentives ensure a predictable demand for settlement balances. A central bank can then achieve the level of short-term interest rates that it desires, using market-oriented instruments only. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
March 21, 1997 Monetary Policy and the Prospects for a Stronger Canadian Economy Remarks Gordon Thiessen Canadian Association for Business Economics and the Ottawa Economics Association Ottawa, Ontario Anyone who has read our last Monetary Policy Report, the winter issue of the Bank of Canada Review, or our just-released Annual Report knows that the Bank has been positive about Canada's economic outlook. Basically, we are looking for a solid pickup in the pace of economic expansion in coming months, with inflation remaining low. And, with improvements in the basic foundation of our economy, we see the potential for sustained good economic performance over the medium term. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Monetary Shocks in the G-6 Countries: Is There a Puzzle? Staff Working Paper 1997-7 Ben Fung, Marcel Kasumovich This paper attempts to reduce the uncertainty about the dynamics of the monetary transmission mechanism. Central to this attempt is the identification of monetary policy shocks. Recently, VAR approaches that use over-identifying restrictions have shown success in isolating such shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Lagging Productivity Growth in the Service Sector: Mismeasurement, Mismanagement or Misinformation? Staff Working Paper 1997-6 Dinah Maclean While the service sector has been growing rapidly as a share of total output, aggregate productivity growth has generally lagged behind that of the goods sector. In this report, the author assesses a range of explanations for lagging service sector productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): L, L8, L80, O, O4, O47