Forecasting Banks’ Corporate Loan Losses Under Stress: A New Corporate Default Model Technical Report No. 122 Gabriel Bruneau, Thibaut Duprey, Ruben Hipp We present a new corporate default model, one of the building blocks of the Bank of Canada’s bank stress-testing infrastructure. The model is used to forecast corporate loan losses of the Canadian banking sector under stress. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, C53, G, G1, G17, G2, G21, G28
September 30, 2022 Research Update - September 2022 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
September 28, 2022 Bank of Canada response to detailed review report The Bank of Canada thanks the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for undertaking its thorough and thoughtful pilot review of the Bank under the new Central Bank Transparency Code (CBTC). We welcome the publication of this final review report by the IMF Mission Team and the associated recommendations. Content Type(s): Background materials
September 28, 2022 Bank of Canada welcomes IMF report following transparency review Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today welcomed the publication by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of its final report summarizing its pilot review of the Bank’s transparency practices. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
September 26, 2022 CARR Meeting (September 26, 2022) Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance Staff Analytical Note 2022-13 Vivian Chu, Yang Zhang A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E37, E4, E5, E52, E58
Behavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models Staff Working Paper 2022-42 Cars Hommes, Kostas Mavromatis, Tolga Özden, Mei Zhu We introduce behavioral learning equilibria (BLE) into DSGE models with boundedly rational agents using simple but optimal first order autoregressive forecasting rules. The Smets-Wouters DSGE model with BLE is estimated and fits well with inflation survey expectations. As a policy application, we show that learning requires a lower degree of interest rate smoothing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E6, E62