Some Evidence on Hysteresis and the Costs of Disinflation in Canada Technical Report No. 55 Barry Cozier, Gordon Wilkinson This paper addresses the following questions: How large are the output costs of disinflation in Canada? Are these costs temporary, as predicted by natural-rate models, or are they permanent, as predicted by hysteresis models? Are the costs of disinflation higher at lower rates of inflation? Are they higher when the economy is at or below […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31
The Goal of Price Stability: A Review of the Issues Technical Report No. 54 Jack Selody The basic responsibility of a central bank is to preserve the value of money—that is, to maintain stability in the general level of prices. This report pulls together the main arguments for and against price stability as the appropriate goal for monetary policy. The available evidence suggests that the benefits of price stability are many […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E50
Measuring the Profitability and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Some Canadian Evidence Technical Report No. 53 John Murray, Mark Zelmer, Shane Williamson When the major industrial countries decided to move to a system of managed flexible exchange rates following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, many observers thought that this would reduce, if not eliminate, the need for official foreign exchange market intervention. During the past fifteen years, however, intervention in most countries, including Canada, has […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G14
International Interest Rate Linkages and Monetary Policy: A Canadian Perspective Technical Report No. 52 John Murray, Ritha Khemani This paper examines the implications of increased international capital mobility and asset substitutability for domestic monetary policy in a small open economy such as Canada. Alternative definitions of international financial market integration are presented and tested in the context of two popular macro models. In the main, results suggest that interest rate relationships in Canada […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, F, F3, F33
Regional Disparities in Wage and Unemployment Rates in Canada: A Review of Some Issues Technical Report No. 51 Kathleen Day In this report the author considers three issues relating to regional disparities in Canada. First, the size of regional disparities in unemployment and wage rates is examined together with the patterns in these disparities over time. Next, various theories related to the causes of regional disparities are reviewed, focussing on their predictions regarding regional disparities […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24
The NAIRU in Canada: Concepts, Determinants and Estimates Technical Report No. 50 David Rose An important question that faces macroeconomic policy makers is whether the economy can absorb increases in aggregate demand without generating inflationary pressures. Many economists have found it useful to approach this issue by asking whether the economy is operating at a rate of unemployment consistent with inflation neither accelerating nor decelerating, all else being equal. […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24
An Analysis of the Information Content of Alternative Credit Aggregates Technical Report No. 49 Leslie Milton This study evaluates the information content of 25 measures of credit with respect to three macroeconomic variables—nominal spending, real spending and prices. Initially, simple descriptive techniques are used to assess the contemporaneous and leading relationships between the credit aggregates and the three goal variables. Next, bivariate vector autoregression models are constructed by regressing each of […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E5, E51
An Analysis of the Information Content of Alternative Monetary Aggregates Technical Report No. 48 Doug Hostland, Stephen S. Poloz, Paul Storer In this study the authors compare the information content of alternative monetary aggregates with respect to total spending in the economy, using data for Canada. The analysis considers 46 monetary measures, about half of which constitute conventional summation aggregates, while the remainder are superlative indices of monetary services based on the Fisher Ideal formula. The […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E5, E51
Les effets macroéconomiques des déficits budgétaires : résultats d'un modèle de simulation Technical Report No. 47 Pierre Duguay, Yves Rabeau An increase in a government deficit can have two effects: short-term stimulation of aggregate demand and employment, and long-term contraction of potential output. In this paper, these effects are illustrated using a dynamic, macroeconomic simulation model. The model is not a forecasting tool; it is intended to bridge the gap between Keynesian and supply-side economics […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): H, H6, H60
A VAR Analysis of Economic Interdependence: Canada, the United States, and the Rest of the World Technical Report No. 46 John Kuszczak, John Murray The authors use vector autoregression (VAR) modelling techniques to examine the response of the domestic economy to foreign influences and to quantify some of the concepts and relationships relating to economic interdependence. Particular attention is given to the dynamic behaviour and interactions of the U.S. and Canadian economies over the past twenty years. Extensive empirical […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F15, F4, F41