Exploring the drivers of the real term premium in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2025-3 Zabi Tarshi, Gitanjali Kumar Changes in the term premium can reflect uncertainty about inflation, growth and monetary policy. Understanding the key factors that influence the term premium is important when central banks make decisions about monetary policy. In this paper, we derive the real term premium from the nominal term premium in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12
Monetary policy, interest rates and the Canadian dollar Staff Analytical Note 2025-2 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ingomar Krohn, James Kyeong, Rishi Vala, Konrad Zmitrowicz Changes in domestic interest rates affect the value of the Canadian dollar less than changes in the risk premium do. These variations often occur when a broad shift in risk sentiment occurs in global markets. Ultimately, the value of the currency reflects long-term, slow-moving features of the economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
Using new loan data to better understand mortgage holders Staff Analytical Note 2025-1 Odae Al Aboud, Saarah Sheikh, Adam Su, Yang Xu The Bank of Canada is using an enhanced dataset that tracks the stock of outstanding mortgages and home equity lines of credit held by federally regulated lenders. This paper highlights some of the new details in the dataset and how they impact the Bank’s understanding of the mortgage market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, G, G2, G21, G28
The impact of a central bank digital currency on payments at the point of sale Staff Analytical Note 2024-27 Walter Engert, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel We simulate the impact of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) on consumer adoption, merchant acceptance and use of different payment methods. Modest frictions that deter consumer adoption of a CBDC inhibit its market penetration. Minor pricing responses by financial institutions and payment service providers further reduce the impact of a CBDC. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52
How foreign central banks can affect liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market Staff Analytical Note 2024-26 Patrick Aldridge, Jabir Sandhu, Sofia Tchamova We find that foreign central banks own a large share of Government of Canada (GoC) bonds and tend to hold their positions for longer than other types of asset managers. This buy-and-hold behaviour could offer benefits. For example, foreign central banks may be less likely than other asset managers to sell bonds and add to strains on market liquidity in periods of turmoil. However, foreign central banks’ buy-and-hold behaviour combined with their minimal lending of GoC bonds in securities-financing markets, as observed in our available data, can potentially lower liquidity because fewer GoC bonds are available for others to transact in secondary markets. Indeed, we find that higher levels of foreign central banks’ GoC bond holdings are related to lower liquidity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Foreign reserves management, International financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F30, F31, G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G12, G15, G2, G23
Mortgage stress tests and household financial resilience under monetary policy tightening Staff Analytical Note 2024-25 Jonathan Hartley, Nuno Paixão This note analyzes mortgage stress tests, a macroprudential tool. We find that when mortgage stress tests are applied to all mortgage purchase originations, they improve credit quality and reduce credit and house price growth. They also improve the resilience of borrowers to financial shocks, such as the large increase in interest rates during 2022–23. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, G28, G5, G50, G51
How do Canadians perceive access to cash? Staff Analytical Note 2024-24 Heng Chen, Daneal O’Habib, Hongyu Xiao This paper introduces a subjective measure of cash accessibility in Canada, complementing existing distance-based metrics developed by Chen, O’Habib and Xiao (2023). Analyzing data from the 2023 Methods-of-Payment Survey, this study explores how Canadians perceive their ease of accessing cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J1, J15, O, O1, R, R5, R51
Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata Staff Analytical Note 2024-23 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos, Gabriela Galassi When it comes to understanding the influence of labour costs on inflation, average wage growth is a misleading indicator because it is affected by composition effects. We propose an alternative measure that corrects for these effects by using microdata from the Labour Force Survey. Our new measure has many desirable properties, including reduced volatility and a better relationship with labour market fundamentals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, J, J2, J21, J3, J30, J31, J8, J82
Evaluating the portfolio balance effects of the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program on the Canadian yield curve Staff Analytical Note 2024-22 Antonio Diez de los Rios The Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, launched in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, lowered the weighted average maturity of the Government of Canada’s debt by approximately 1.4 years. This in turn reduced Canadian 10-year and 5-year zero-coupon yields by 84 and 52 basis points, respectively. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63
CORRA: Explaining the rise in volumes and resulting upward pressure Staff Analytical Note 2024-21 Boran Plong, Neil Maru On May 27, 2024, the settlement period for trading GoC bonds in the secondary market in Canada moved from two days to one. This shortened time for settling secondary cash bond trades caused CORRA volumes to rise significantly, and they have remained elevated since. This combined with the skew in demand for funding has pressured CORRA higher. We find no indications that any other factors are contributing to the most recent pressures on CORRA. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): D, D4, D5, D53, E, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52, G, G1, G12