Has Liquidity in Canadian Government Bond Markets Deteriorated? Staff Analytical Note 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Jun Yang This note presents measures of liquidity used by the Bank of Canada to monitor market conditions and discusses recent trends in Government of Canada (GoC) fixed-income market liquidity. Our results indicate that the Bank’s measures have improved since the financial crisis. Furthermore, GoC market liquidity deteriorated following several stressful events: the euro crisis in 2011, the taper tantrum in 2013 and the oil price shock in 2015. In all three cases, the deterioration remained within historical norms and liquidity returned to normal levels afterwards. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models Staff Working Paper 2017-32 Benjamin Klaus, Thibaut Duprey This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence Against a “Greasing Effect” Staff Working Paper 2017-31 Joel Wagner The existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) has often been used to justify a positive inflation target. It is traditionally assumed that positive inflation could “grease the wheels” of the labour market by putting downward pressure on real wages, easing labour market adjustments during a recession. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E5, E52
July 31, 2017 Research Update - July 2017 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Retrieving Implied Financial Networks from Bank Balance-Sheet and Market Data Staff Working Paper 2017-30 Jose Fique In complex and interconnected banking systems, counterparty risk does not depend only on the risk of the immediate counterparty but also on the risk of others in the network of exposures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, D, D8, D85, G, G2, G21
Information Contagion and Systemic Risk Staff Working Paper 2017-29 Co-Pierre Georg, Toni Ahnert We examine the effect of ex-post information contagion on the ex-ante level of systemic risk defined as the probability of joint bank default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G2, G21
Fintech: Is This Time Different? A Framework for Assessing Risks and Opportunities for Central Banks Staff Discussion Paper 2017-10 Meyer Aaron, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Samantha Sohal We investigate the risks and opportunities to the mandates of central banks arising from fintech developments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G1, G2, L, L1
Adoption of a New Payment Method: Theory and Experimental Evidence Staff Working Paper 2017-28 Jasmina Arifovic, John Duffy, Janet Hua Jiang We model the introduction of a new payment method, e.g., e-money, that competes with an existing payment method, e.g., cash. The new payment method involves relatively lower per-transaction costs for both buyers and sellers, but sellers must pay a fixed fee to accept the new payment method. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, C8, C83, C9, C92, E, E4, E41
Firm Heterogeneity, Technological Adoption, and Urbanization: Theory and Measurement Staff Working Paper 2017-27 Alex Chernoff This paper develops a model of firm heterogeneity, technological adoption, and urbanization. In the model, welfare is measured by household real income, and urbanization is measured by population density. I use the model to derive statistics that measure the effect of a new technology on productivity, welfare, and urbanization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Productivity, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): N, N6, N61, O, O1, O14, R, R1, R13
Quantitative Easing and Long‐Term Yields in Small Open Economies Staff Working Paper 2017-26 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Maral Shamloo We compare the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs with those implemented by the Bank of England and the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank’s reserve expansion program. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G12