Price-Level Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence Staff Working Paper 2011-18 Robert Amano, Jim Engle-Warnick, Malik Shukayev In this paper, we use an economics decision-making experiment to test a key assumption underpinning the efficacy of price-level targeting relative to inflation targeting for business cycle stabilization and mitigating the effects of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52
Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada Staff Working Paper 2011-17 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Jakub Kastl This paper explores the reliability of using prices of credit default swap contracts (CDS) as indicators of default probabilities during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G28
The Impact of Operational Events on the Network Structure of the LVTS Staff Discussion Paper 2011-7 Tom Roberts The author uses a quantitative network analysis approach to assess how participants in the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) respond to partial outages at other banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C4, C49, G, G1, G14, G2, G21
Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil Staff Working Paper 2011-16 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil Staff Discussion Paper 2011-6 Ron Alquist, Olivier Gervais Over the past 10 years, financial firms have increased the size of their positions in the oil futures market. At the same time, oil prices have increased dramatically. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, Q, Q4, Q41
External Stability, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging-Market Economies Staff Discussion Paper 2011-5 Olivier Gervais, Lawrence L. Schembri, Lena Suchanek In emerging-market economies, real exchange rate adjustment is critical for maintaining a sustainable current account position and thereby for helping to reduce macroeconomic and financial instability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, F4, F41
Lessons from International Central Counterparties: Benchmarking and Analysis Staff Discussion Paper 2011-4 Alexandre Lazarow Since the financial crisis, attention has focused on central counterparties (CCPs) as a solution to systemic risk for a variety of financial markets, ranging from repurchase agreements and options to swaps. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G14, G18, G2, G28, G3, G38
Forecasting the Price of Oil Staff Working Paper 2011-15 Ron Alquist, Lutz Kilian, Robert Vigfusson We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47
Real-Financial Linkages in the Canadian Economy: An Input-Output Approach Staff Working Paper 2011-14 Danny Leung, Oana Secrieru The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we provide a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM), which incorporates the income and financial flows into the standard input-output matrix, for the Canadian economy for 2004. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C6, C67, D, D5, D57
Bank Loans for Private and Public Firms in a Credit Crunch Staff Working Paper 2011-13 Jason Allen, Teodora Paligorova Banks reliance on short-term funding has increased over time. While an effective source of financing in good times, the 2007 financial crisis has exposed the vulnerability of banks and ultimately firms to such a liability structure. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G20