Commodity Price Co-Movement and Global Economic Activity Staff Working Paper 2014-32 Ron Alquist, Olivier Coibion Guided by a macroeconomic model in which non-energy commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, F, F4
July 31, 2014 Research Update - July 2014 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Research newsletters
Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model Technical Report No. 102 Olivier Gervais, Marc-André Gosselin The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17
Removal of the Unwinding Provisions in the Automated Clearing Settlement System: A Risk Assessment Staff Discussion Paper 2014-4 Nicholas Labelle, Varya Taylor A default in the Automated Clearing Settlement System (ACSS) occurs when a Direct Clearer is unable to settle its final obligation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, G, G0, G01, G2, G3
Capital Flows and Macroprudential Policies - A Multilateral Assessment of Effectiveness and Externalities Staff Working Paper 2014-31 John Beirne, Christian Friedrich This paper assesses the effectiveness and associated externalities that arise when macroprudential policies (MPPs) are used to manage international capital flows. Using a sample of up to 139 countries, we examine the impact of eight different MPP measures on cross-border bank flows over the period 1999-2009. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F5, G, G0, G01, G1, G11
Information, Amplification and Financial Crisis Staff Working Paper 2014-30 Ali Kakhbod, Toni Ahnert We propose a parsimonious model of information choice in a global coordination game of regime change that is used to analyze debt crises, bank runs or currency attacks. A change in the publicly available information alters the uncertainty about the behavior of other investors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, G, G0, G01
June 30, 2014 Research Update - June 2014 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Optimal Margining and Margin Relief in Centrally Cleared Derivatives Markets Staff Working Paper 2014-29 Radoslav Raykov A major policy challenge posed by derivatives clearinghouses is that their collateral requirements can rise sharply in times of stress, reducing market liquidity and further exacerbating downturns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21
Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions Staff Discussion Paper 2014-3 Maxime Leboeuf, Louis Morel In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47
Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations Staff Working Paper 2014-28 Michael Ehrmann, Damjan Pfajfar, Emiliano Santoro This paper studies the formation of consumers’ inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey. It shows that beyond the well-established socio-economic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or education, other characteristics such as the households’ financial situation and their purchasing attitudes also matter. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31