The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies Staff Working Paper 2014-53 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Garima Vasishtha The Federal Reserve’s path for withdrawal of monetary stimulus and eventually increasing interest rates could have substantial repercussions for capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, F, F3, F33, F4, F42
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave? Staff Working Paper 2014-52 Michael Ehrmann Inflation targeting (IT) had originally been introduced as a device to bring inflation down and stabilize it at low levels. Given the current environment of persistently weak inflation in many advanced economies, IT central banks must now bring inflation up to target. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
November 30, 2014 Research Update - November 2014 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Bootstrap Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency with Multiple Portfolio Groupings Staff Working Paper 2014-51 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger We propose double bootstrap methods to test the mean-variance efficiency hypothesis when multiple portfolio groupings of the test assets are considered jointly rather than individually. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, C15, G, G1, G12
The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets Staff Working Paper 2014-50 Vikram Rai, Lena Suchanek The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program has been accompanied by a flow of funds into emerging-market economies (EMEs) in search of higher returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E5, E58, F, F3, F32, G, G1, G14
Credit Market Frictions and Sudden Stops Staff Working Paper 2014-49 Yuko Imura Financial crises in emerging economies in the 1980s and 1990s often entailed abrupt declines in foreign capital inflows, improvements in trade balance, and large declines in output and total factor productivity (TFP). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, G, G0, G01
October 31, 2014 Research Update - October 2014 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2014-48 Maximo Camacho, Danilo Leiva-Leon This paper examines the business cycle linkages that propagate industry-specific business cycle shocks throughout the economy in a way that (sometimes) generates aggregated cycles. The transmission of sectoral business cycles is modelled through a multivariate Markov-switching model, which is estimated by Gibbs sampling. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E2, E27, E3, E32
Labour Share Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Cost of Borrowing Staff Working Paper 2014-47 Serdar Kabaca This paper contributes to the literature by documenting labour income share fluctuations in emerging-market economies and proposing an explanation for them. Time-series data indicate that emerging markets differ from developed markets in terms of changes in the labour share over the business cycle. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Development economics, Interest rates, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E25, E4, E44, F, F4, F41
Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts? Staff Working Paper 2014-46 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, Thomas K. Lee The answer as to whether there are gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts depends on the objective. The approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model and using it for all horizons up to two years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q43