State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models Staff Working Paper 2018-14 Luis Uzeda Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C5, C51, C53
Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey Staff Working Paper 2018-13 Patrick Alexander, Louis Poirier The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, Q, Q4, Q43
March 14, 2018 Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group CARR was created to ensure Canada’s interest rate benchmark regime is robust, relevant and effective in the years ahead.
Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities Staff Analytical Note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18
March 13, 2018 Government of Canada Direct Marketable Bonds: Details of unmatured outstanding issues Details of unmatured outstanding issues for global bonds and domestic marketable bonds, as at month-end.
March 13, 2018 Canadian economy carrying untapped potential, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz says Media Relations Kingston, Ontario The Canadian economy is carrying untapped potential that could prolong the expansion without causing inflation pressures, Governor Stephen S. Poloz said today. In a lecture at Queen’s University, Governor Poloz said that the Canadian economy is currently in the phase of the economic cycle where companies need to expand capacity to meet rising demand. “Growing […] Content Type(s): Press, Press releases