Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment Staff Analytical Note 2018-10 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Bassirou Gueye, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Jeffrey Mollins, Youngmin Park This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018 Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
April 9, 2018 Release of the 2017 Bank of Canada FMI Oversight Activities Annual Report The Bank of Canada today published the 2017 annual report on its oversight of payment clearing and settlement systems, which are also known as financial market infrastructures or FMIs. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
Personal Experiences and House Price Expectations: Evidence from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations Staff Analytical Note 2018-8 Mikael Khan, Matthieu Verstraete In this work, we use novel Canadian survey data to study how expectations of future changes in house prices are influenced by personal experiences. We find that recently experienced changes in local house prices are routinely extrapolated into expectations of year-ahead changes in national house prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing
April 9, 2018 Business Outlook Survey - Spring 2018 Results of the spring Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment continues to be positive, supported by healthy sales prospects. Due to recent strong demand, capacity and labour pressures are evident in most regions. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
April 9, 2018 Senior Loan Officer Survey - First Quarter of 2018 This quarter, the Bank will begin reporting on both household and business lending conditions in our expanded Senior Loan Officer Survey. Overall, household lending conditions tightened in the first quarter of 2018, driven by mortgage-related lending, while business lending conditions eased slightly. Content Type(s): Publications, Senior Loan Officer Survey