What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data Staff Working Paper 2021-52 Alberto Cavallo, Oleksiy Kryvtsov Did supply disruptions and cost pressures play a role in rising inflation in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data collected from websites of large retailers in multiple sectors and countries, we show that shortages may indicate transitory inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, E37
Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight Staff Working Paper 2021-51 Michael Woodford, Yinxi Xie How do outcomes of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies at the zero lower bound change when decision makers have finite planning horizons in the economy? We explore the effects of limited foresight on policy tools and the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E63, E7
October 18, 2021 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Survey Data View data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE)—a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances.
October 18, 2021 Business Outlook Survey―Third Quarter of 2021 Firms anticipate stronger demand as pandemic conditions improve, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey in the third quarter of 2021. However, many businesses face supply constraints that will limit their sales and put upward pressure on their costs. Together, these demand pressures and supply challenges are driving widespread plans to invest, hire staff and increase prices. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
October 18, 2021 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2021 This survey took place in the third quarter of 2021, after most Canadians had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and as the Delta variant was beginning to spread more broadly in Canada. Results suggest that consumers plan to increase their spending significantly but remain cautious because of the Delta variant. Canadians think inflation will be higher in the near term due to supply disruptions, but they do not expect this situation to last. Although expectations for labour market conditions improved again, visible minorities, Indigenous people and people with disabilities are showing signs of vulnerabilities. Canadians are not expecting significant wage gains despite recent improvements in the labour market and perceptions of higher inflation. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
October 18, 2021 RPAC Meeting (October 18 and 20, 2021) Topics: Registration process, record keeping, annual reporting and information requests Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Retail Payments Advisory Committee
The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program Staff Analytical Note 2021-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Joe Nesrallah, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jonathan Witmer We assess the response of Government of Canada bond yields to the Bank of Canada’s initial announcement of the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) as well as to the Bank’s later GBPP purchase operations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E63
October 13, 2021 Climate change and the Bank of Canada We’re taking steps to better understand the impacts of climate change on the economy and to reduce our environmental footprint. Content Type(s): Background materials Topic(s): Climate change