November 11, 2008 The Market Impact of Forward-Looking Policy Statements: Transparency vs. Predictability Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2008-2009 Christine Fay, Toni Gravelle Central banks continuously strive to improve how they communicate to financial markets and the public in order to increase transparency. For this reason, many central banks have begun to include guidance on the policy rate in the form of forward-looking statements in their communications. This article examines the debate over the usefulness of providing such statements from both theoretical and empirical standpoints. The evidence presented here suggests that the use of forward-looking statements in Bank of Canada communications has made the Bank more predictable, but not necessarily more transparent. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission
November 11, 2008 Conference Summary: International Experience with the Conduct of Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2008-2009 Philipp Maier Central bankers from inflation-targeting and non-inflation-targeting countries around the world and several distinguished scholars assembled at the Bank of Canada in July 2008 to review the international experience in some detail. This article highlights topics covered in the special lectures and sessions, including how inflation targeting can manage external shocks, various ways in which monetary policy decisions are taken, and the issues of transparency and communications. It also reports on the discussion in the closing panel, which considered options for the future of inflation targeting. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
October 25, 2008 Senior Loan Officer Survey - Third-Quarter 2008 Survey respondents reported widespread tightening in both the pricing and non-pricing dimensions of business-lending conditions. Respondents attributed the tightening of lending conditions mainly to the ongoing turmoil in credit markets and to concerns about the general economic outlook. Content Type(s): Publications, Senior Loan Officer Survey
October 23, 2008 Monetary Policy Report – October 2008 Three major interrelated global developments are having a profound impact on the Canadian economy and making the outlook more uncertain than it was at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report Update. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
October 10, 2008 Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2008 Responses to the autumn survey indicate that the combination of weak U.S. demand, volatile financial markets, and slowing momentum in the West are weighing more heavily on business activity in Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
September 15, 2008 Productivity in Canada: Does Firm Size Matter? Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 Danny Leung, Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima The research findings highlighted in this article suggest that firm-size differences play a significant role in explaining the productivity gap between Canada and the United States. The authors review factors that lead to a positive relationship between productivity and size and then look at Canadian evidence of this relationship at the firm level. They quantify the extent to which the change in Canadian productivity as well as the Canada-U.S. productivity differences can be accounted for by the change in the importance of large firms and identify several factors that play a role in determining average firm size and aggregate productivity. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Productivity
September 15, 2008 Offshoring and Its Effects on the Labour Market and Productivity: A Survey of Recent Literature Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 James Rossiter, Yi Zheng, Calista Cheung Offshoring has become an increasingly prominent aspect of the globalization process. Evidence over the past two decades suggests that offshoring has not exerted a noticeable impact on overall employment and earnings growth in advanced economies, but it has likely contributed to shifting the demand for labour towards higher-skilled jobs. There appear to be some positive effects of offshoring on productivity, but such effects differ by country. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Productivity
September 15, 2008 Adjusting to the Commodity-Price Boom: The Experiences of Four Industrialized Countries Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 Michael Francis Between 2002 and 2008, global commodity prices rose to unprecedented levels. This article examines the process of adjustment to the commodity boom in four industrialized, commodity-exporting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway). The article focuses on both the direct adjustment within the commodity-producing sectors (via increased employment and capital spending) and the indirect adjustment in the macro economy. The analysis finds that the indirect adjustment process, which was triggered by the increase in incomes that the commodity-price boom generated, has been the most important part of the adjustment in all four economies. Through this channel, aggregate demand rose, exchange rates appreciated, and adjustment was facilitated in other sectors, such as manufacturing and construction. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments
September 15, 2008 The Effects of Recent Relative Price Movements on the Canadian Economy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 David Dupuis, Philippe Marcil Although the standard of living of Canadians has improved as a result of terms-of-trade gains created by the sharp rise in real commodity prices over the past five years or so, the commodity-price increase, combined with an exchange rate appreciation and real income gain, triggered structural adjustments by altering underlying economic incentives. The frictions generated in adjusting to the relative price shock have likely contributed to hold back aggregate productivity growth. Dupuis and Marcil examine the structural adjustments that have been required-in particular, the resource reallocation among the different sectors of the economy-and its effects on employment, output, and productivity, as well as the responses of final domestic demand and external trade flows. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
September 15, 2008 The Bank of Canada's Senior Loan Officer Survey Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 Umar Faruqui, Paul Gilbert, Wendy Kei The Bank of Canada maintains regular contact with financial institutions as part of the information-gathering process that feeds into the larger set of information used to arrive at its monetary policy decision. Since 1999, the Bank has been conducting a quarterly survey of the business-lending practices of major Canadian financial institutions. Analysis of the information collected shows that it is correlated with future growth in both credit and business investment. This article focuses on how the survey is conducted and describes the construction of the summary statistics, highlighting the key statistical relationships in the historical survey data. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments