The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon? Staff Working Paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47
A Framework for Analyzing Monetary Policy in an Economy with E-money Staff Working Paper 2019-1 Yu Zhu, Scott Hendry This paper considers an economy where central-bank-issued fiat money competes with privately issued e-money. We study a policy-setting game between the central bank and the e-money issuer and find (1) the optimal monetary policy of the central bank depends on the policy of the private issuer and may deviate from the Friedman rule; (2) multiple equilibria may exist; (3) when the economy approaches a cashless state, the central bank’s optimal policy improves the market power of the e-money issuer and can lead to a discrete decrease in welfare and a discrete increase in inflation; and (4) first best cannot be achieved. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
The Secular Decline of Forecasted Interest Rates Staff Analytical Note 2019-1 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Canadian interest rates show a secular decline since the 1980s. Long-term survey-based forecasts of interest rates also declined, but less so and were more gradual. Our model-based estimates show an endpoint shifting over time in three phases: a decline between 1990 and 1995, a period of stability between 1996 and 2007, and a further decline since 2008. The current endpoint estimate remains clouded with uncertainty; this is an active area of research. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12
January 10, 2019 Bank of Canada publishes the Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group principles for enhancements to fallback language The Bank of Canada today published the Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group (CARR) principles for enhancements to fallback language for cash products. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
January 9, 2019 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
January 9, 2019 Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ per cent Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
January 9, 2019 Monetary Policy Report – January 2019 The Bank projects that Canadian economic growth will slow to 1.7 per cent this year before rebounding to 2.1 per cent in 2020. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
December 31, 2018 Research Update - December 2018 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
December 31, 2018 Summary of Government of Canada - Outstanding as at 31 December 2018 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Securities and loans