Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning Staff Working Paper 2023-53 Stephanie Houle, Ryan Macdonald Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate labour share (Autor et al. 2020; De Loecker et al. 2020). We explore the use of supervised machine learning techniques to identify a population of nascent high-growth firms using Canadian administrative firm-level data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, L, L2, L25
October 16, 2023 CFIF recommends path for winding down BA market Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs) will no longer be issued by the major Canadian banks after the cessation of the Canadian Dollar Offered Rate’s (CDOR) publication in June 2024. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Fixed-Income Forum
Decentralized finance: Innovations and challenges Staff Analytical Note 2023-15 Jonathan Chiu, Hanna Yu Decentralized finance surged in popularity around 2020. We explore its value and limitations and highlight some potential regulatory concerns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2
October 16, 2023 The Bank of Canada releases the third quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations On Monday, October 16, 2023, the Bank of Canada will release the third quarter issue of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
October 16, 2023 Business Outlook Survey—Third Quarter of 2023 Results from the Business Outlook Survey for the third quarter of 2023, along with those from the July, August and September 2023 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys suggest that on balance, firms are still planning to make larger and more frequent price increases than they did before the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, businesses' outlook for demand has continued to weaken as higher interest rates impact the economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
October 16, 2023 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023 Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation remain elevated and are diverging from actual inflation. Perceptions of high inflation are also leading to persistently high expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. Consumers’ expectations for interest rates one year from now also remain high, and many consumers believe that the impacts of higher interest rates on their household spending are far from over. Homeowners with a variable-rate mortgage are more likely than other consumers to report being worse off due to high interest rates. Consumers’ plans to purchase services, such as vacations or concerts, are more widespread than plans to make major purchases of goods that are likely to be financed with loans, such as vehicles or appliances. Workers are reporting signs of job market cooling, such as more time spent looking for a new job, but they remain confident about the labour market. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
October 13, 2023 Bank of Canada designates additional prominent payment systems Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has designated Visa Inc.’s VisaNet, Mastercard International Inc.’s Global Clearing Management System and Single Message System, and Interac Corp.’s Inter-Member Network as prominent payment systems under the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act, effective October 16, 2023. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
Estimating the Appropriate Quantity of Settlement Balances in a Floor System Staff Discussion Paper 2023-26 Narayan Bulusu, Matthew McNeely, Kaetlynd McRae, Jonathan Witmer This paper presents two complementary approaches to estimating the appropriate quantity of settlement balances needed to effectively operate monetary policy under a floor system in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G28
An Overview of the Indigenous Economy in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2023-25 Alex Chernoff, Calista Cheung Several measures suggest economic outcomes have improved for Indigenous Peoples in recent decades. Yet, institutional settings and gaps in infrastructure and financing continue to hinder their economic progress. Recent efforts have helped address some data gaps, and new institutions are helping Indigenous communities to overcome historic barriers to growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Development economics, Financial services, Labour markets, Monetary policy transmission, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, E02, N, N4, N41, N42, O, O4, O43, P, P4, P48