A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes Staff Working Paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19
Aggregate Fluctuations and the Role of Trade Credit Staff Working Paper 2017-37 Lin Shao In an economy where production takes place in multiple stages and is subject to financial frictions, how firms finance intermediate inputs matters for aggregate outcomes. This paper focuses on trade credit—the lending and borrowing of input goods between firms—and quantifies its aggregate impacts during the Great Recession. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E51
September 18, 2017 Build a Bank Note: Classroom Resource for Teachers Teach your students about Canada’s history, land and culture – with money! Download the free lesson plan.
September 18, 2017 How Canada’s International Trade is Changing with the Times Remarks Timothy Lane Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses the changing nature of international trade and the factors that are propelling it. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
September 18, 2017 Bank of Canada begins publishing daily data for new Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index Daily data for the Bank’s new Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index is now available on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
September 15, 2017 Weekly Financial Statistics - 15 September 2017 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
The MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF), Version 2.0 Technical Report No. 111 Jose Fique This report provides a detailed technical description of the updated MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF), which replaces the version described in Gauthier, Souissi and Liu (2014) as the Bank of Canada’s stress-testing model for banks with a focus on domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C7, C72, E, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28