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Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach

Staff Working Paper 2016-21 Fuchun Li, Hongyu Xiao
We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks.

Hongyu Xiao

Hongyu is a Senior Economist in the Currency Department/Economic Research and Analysis at the Bank of Canada.

Adrian Walton

Adrian Walton is an Assistant Director in the Financial Markets Department at the Bank of Canada.
April 26, 2016

Canada-US Securities Summit - Press Conference (Audio)

A New Balance Point: Global Trade, Productivity and Economic Growth - Stephen S. Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, speaks at the Canada-US Securities Summit (09:50 (ET) approx.)

April 26, 2016

Canada-US Securities Summit - Press Conference (Video)

A New Balance Point: Global Trade, Productivity and Economic Growth - Stephen S. Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, speaks at the Canada-US Securities Summit (09:50 (ET) approx.)

April 26, 2016

Canada-US Securities Summit - Speech (Video)

A New Balance Point: Global Trade, Productivity and Economic Growth - Stephen S. Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, speaks at the Canada-US Securities Summit (08:55 (ET) approx.)

April 26, 2016

Canada-US Securities Summit - Speech (Audio)

A New Balance Point: Global Trade, Productivity and Economic Growth - Stephen S. Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, speaks at the Canada-US Securities Summit (08:55 (ET) approx.)

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