Personal Experiences and House Price Expectations: Evidence from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations Staff Analytical Note 2018-8 Mikael Khan, Matthieu Verstraete In this work, we use novel Canadian survey data to study how expectations of future changes in house prices are influenced by personal experiences. We find that recently experienced changes in local house prices are routinely extrapolated into expectations of year-ahead changes in national house prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing
April 9, 2018 Business Outlook Survey - Spring 2018 Results of the spring Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment continues to be positive, supported by healthy sales prospects. Due to recent strong demand, capacity and labour pressures are evident in most regions. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
April 9, 2018 Senior Loan Officer Survey - First Quarter of 2018 This quarter, the Bank will begin reporting on both household and business lending conditions in our expanded Senior Loan Officer Survey. Overall, household lending conditions tightened in the first quarter of 2018, driven by mortgage-related lending, while business lending conditions eased slightly. Content Type(s): Publications, Senior Loan Officer Survey
Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability? Staff Working Paper 2018-17 José Dorich, Nicholas Labelle, Vadym Lepetyuk, Rhys R. Mendes Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52
Order Flow Segmentation, Liquidity and Price Discovery: The Role of Latency Delays Staff Working Paper 2018-16 Michael Brolley, David Cimon Latency delays—known as “speed bumps”—are an intentional slowing of order flow by exchanges. Supporters contend that delays protect market makers from high-frequency arbitrage, while opponents warn that delays promote “quote fading” by market makers. We construct a model of informed trading in a fragmented market, where one market operates a conventional order book and the other imposes a latency delay on market orders. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G18
March 31, 2018 Research Update - March 2018 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
March 29, 2018 Banking and Financial Statistics - March 2018 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Banking and Financial Statistics
March 27, 2018 Government of Canada Debt Distribution Framework Review Consultations A consultation document pertaining to the design of the Government of Canada debt distribution framework, prepared jointly by the Department of Finance and the Bank of Canada, is being made public today. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices