November 5, 2018 Making sense of financial markets worth the effort, Governor Poloz says Media Relations London, United Kingdom It can be a challenge for central banks to reconcile their views of the economy with signals from financial markets, but the effort is worthwhile, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz says in a speech today. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
November 5, 2018 Making Sense of Markets Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canada–UK Chamber of Commerce London, United Kingdom Governor Poloz discusses how the Bank uses financial market information in its monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments
Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China Staff Working Paper 2018-53 Huixin Bi, Yongquan Cao, Wei Dong This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E62
November 1, 2018 Bank of Canada publishes staff economic projections for the first time Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario Today the Bank of Canada launched a digital database with more than 30 years of past staff economic projections of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
November 1, 2018 2018 Bank of Canada Annual Conference: Inflation Targeting: Revisit! Revise it? Conference held on November 1 and 2, 2018. Content Type(s): Conferences and workshops
October 31, 2018 Research Update - October 2018 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts Staff Working Paper 2018-52 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E1, E17, E3, E37
October 31, 2018 Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be with you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report. At the time of our last appearance in April, our message was about the considerable economic progress that we had seen. We explained that after a lacklustre start […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments