January 16, 2023 Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2022 Results from the fourth-quarter 2022 Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys from October 2022 through January 2023 show that business sentiment has continued to weaken. As a result of rising interest rates, firms’ sales expectations and investment plans are softening. Capacity pressures have moderated from elevated levels. In this context, firms expect a slower pace of price increases. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
January 16, 2023 The Bank of Canada releases the fourth quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations On Monday, January 16, 2023, the Bank of Canada will release the fourth quarter issue of the Business Outlook Survey and the latest results of the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
January 16, 2023 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2022 Results of the fourth-quarter survey show that consumers have reduced their purchases of a broad range of goods and services in response to rising inflation and increases in interest rates. High food prices are a particular source of frustration for households. Most consumers anticipate a mild or moderate recession in the next 12 months. And although labour markets continue to be strong, some early signals suggest consumers think this strength will fade. Meanwhile, short-term inflation expectations remain elevated this quarter, but consumers have varied opinions about where inflation will be in five years. More people than before the pandemic expect deflation. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective Staff Working Paper 2023-5 Paul Beaudry, Katya Kartashova, Césaire Meh Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62, G, G5, G51, H, H6
January 11, 2023 CARR announces development of a Term CORRA benchmark The announcement today confirms that efforts are underway to develop a 1- and 3-month Term CORRA benchmark with the objective of making such benchmarks available for use by the end of Q3-2023. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
January 11, 2023 CARR and TMX launch webcast series on the transition from CDOR CARR is pleased to announce the launch of a series of CDOR Transition Webcasts, developed in partnership with TMX. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
Summaries of Central Bank Policy Deliberations: A Canadian Context Staff Discussion Paper 2023-2 Monica Jain, Walter Muiruri, Jonathan Witmer, Sharon Kozicki, Jeremy Harrison This paper provides the context, rationale and key considerations that informed the Bank of Canada’s decision to publish a summary of monetary policy deliberations. It includes an analysis of how other central banks disclose minutes and summaries of their monetary policy deliberations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E5, E58