April 24, 2019 Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ per cent Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
April 24, 2019 Monetary Policy Report – April 2019 The Bank’s new forecast calls for real economic growth of 1.2 per cent this year, 2.1 per cent next year and 2.0 per cent in 2021. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales Staff Analytical Note 2019-12 Mikael Khan, Taylor Webley We use a recently developed model and loan-level microdata to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E2, R, R2, R21
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update Staff Analytical Note 2019-11 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41
Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment Staff Analytical Note 2019-10 Dany Brouillette, Julien Champagne, Carol Khoury, Natalia Kyui, Jeffrey Mollins, Youngmin Park Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6
April 15, 2019 Business Outlook Survey—Spring 2019 Results from the spring Business Outlook Survey point to a moderation from previously high levels of domestic and foreign demand for firms in most regions. Investment and employment intentions remain positive. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
April 15, 2019 Senior Loan Officer Survey—First Quarter of 2019 Overall household lending conditions were once again unchanged this quarter. Although business lending conditions were unchanged overall, some marginal price easing was driven by corporate lending conditions. Content Type(s): Publications, Senior Loan Officer Survey
Could Canadian Bond Funds Add Stress to the Financial System? Staff Analytical Note 2019-9 Rohan Arora, Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Ryan Shotlander We create a hypothetical scenario to study the role bond funds play in intensifying shocks to the financial system. Using data from 2018 and 2007, we find that bond funds play a larger role now than they did in the past. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23