July 6, 2015 Business Outlook Survey - Summer 2015 The summer Business Outlook Survey points to a diverging outlook across regions. While there are some encouraging signs, owing in part to strengthening U.S. demand, weak oil prices continue to significantly dampen economic perspectives in affected sectors and regions. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
July 6, 2015 Senior Loan Officer Survey - Second-Quarter 2015 The survey results suggest that, overall, business-lending conditions were broadly unchanged during the second quarter of 2015. Content Type(s): Publications, Senior Loan Officer Survey
July 3, 2015 Weekly Financial Statistics - 3 July 2015 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
Managerial Compensation Duration and Stock Price Manipulation Staff Working Paper 2015-25 Josef Schroth I build a model of optimal managerial compensation where managers each have a privately observed propensity to manipulate short-term stock prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, G, G1, G14, G3, G30, M, M1, M12
July 2, 2015 Operational Test of Standing Central Bank Swap Arrangements As part of an exercise to test the operational readiness of existing standing swap arrangements with other central banks, the Bank of Canada will conduct a small-value Canadian-dollar operation with the Bank of England, drawing British pounds against Canadian dollars. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
June 30, 2015 Research Update - June 2015 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data Staff Working Paper 2015-24 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes – Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging – so as to explicitly reflect the objective of forecasting a discrete outcome. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37
Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies Staff Working Paper 2015-23 Juncal Cunado, Soojin Jo, Fernando Perez de Gracia This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks in four of the largest oil-consuming Asian economies, using a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify three different types of oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, O, O5, O53, Q, Q4, Q43