November 19, 2015 Measuring Durable Goods and Housing Prices in the CPI: An Empirical Assessment Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Patrick Sabourin, Pierre Duguay While the CPI is the most commonly used measure to track inflation, it is not fully consistent with a true cost-of-living index (COLI). Although the official treatment of durable goods and housing in the CPI represents an acceptable compromise in the current environment of low and stable inflation, Sabourin and Duguay suggest that it would be worthwhile to consider treating housing and durables in the same way and bringing the actual CPI closer to a COLI. This could be accomplished by employing an enhanced user-cost approach to calculate the imputed cost of the services provided by the use of durable goods or housing. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
November 19, 2015 The Effect of Regulatory Changes on Monetary Policy Implementation Frameworks Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Meyer Aaron, Annick Demers, Sean Durr This article provides an analysis of some recent banking regulatory initiatives that are likely to influence the activities of financial intermediaries and the effectiveness of central bank monetary policy implementation frameworks. Although the effects of individual regulations can be anticipated in most cases, the combined regulatory impact is not yet clear. Central banks should, however, be able to accommodate the effects of the emerging regulatory environment within their existing policy implementation frameworks. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, L, L5, L50
November 19, 2015 Recent Enhancements to the Management of Canada’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Mervin Merkowsky, Eric Wolfe As the size and complexity of the foreign exchange reserves have grown over the years, enhancements to the management framework needed to keep pace. This is a common theme for most reserve managers around the world. In Canada, the enhancements focused on governance, portfolio management, risk measurement and risk management. This article briefly describes these enhancements, why they were implemented and some of the lessons learned along the way. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Foreign reserves management, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1
May 14, 2015 Inflation Dynamics in the Post-Crisis Period Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Christian Friedrich, Marc-André Gosselin Inflation rates in advanced economies experienced two consecutive puzzles during the period following the global financial crisis—unexpectedly high inflation from the end of 2009 to 2011 and unexpectedly low inflation from 2012 to the middle of 2014. We investigate these developments in two ways. First, we show that accounting for inflation expectations by households explains a significant share of the inflation puzzles at the international level. Second, we find that, for Canada, elevated competition in the retail sector is also important for understanding inflation dynamics in the post-crisis period. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, F, F4, F41
May 14, 2015 The Slowdown in Global Trade Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Michael Francis, Louis Morel Global trade growth has been weak during the period following the 2007–09 financial crisis. This is an important development for Canada, given the Canadian economy's high degree of openness to trade. This article investigates some of the factors behind the slowdown in global trade and finds that the weakness of global demand and its changing composition, increased protectionism and diminishing incentives to expand trade have all played a role. Some of these factors are likely to have only a temporary effect on trade growth, but others could be more long-lasting. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4, F6
May 14, 2015 Improving the Foundation of Canada’s Payments System Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Lana Embree, Paul Miller The Canadian payments environment has evolved with enhancements in technology, changes in user expectations and new regulatory standards. In response, the existing regulatory framework and core payments infrastructure are being enhanced. This article describes several revisions to the governance and regulation of the payments system as well as plans to update the core payments infrastructure. These initiatives will position the Canadian payments system to more effectively support a modern and vibrant economy by serving the payments needs of Canadians safely and efficiently as the payments industry continues to evolve. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28
May 14, 2015 The “Bank” at the Bank of Canada Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Thérèse Couture, Christian Bélisle In this article, we describe the various types of banking services (payments, settlement and safekeeping) that the Bank of Canada provides to different types of clients (the Government of Canada, financial market infrastructures, financial institutions, foreign central banks and the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation). We also explain the reasons the Bank provides these services and how this role supports its core mandates, in particular financial stability. Finally, we explore the factors driving the growth and evolution in the provision of these banking services. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial services, Foreign reserves management, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, G, G2, G20
May 14, 2015 The Use of Cash in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Ben Fung, Kim Huynh, Gerald Stuber The Bank of Canada’s 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey indicates that the share of cash in the overall number of retail transactions has continued to decrease, mainly because of increased use of contactless credit cards. The share of cash in the total value of retail transactions was virtually unchanged from 2009 to 2013. In particular, the value share of cash transactions above $50 increased. Automated banking machines (ABMs), still the major source of cash for Canadians, were used less often in 2013 than in 2009. Cash use in Canada is broadly similar to that in Australia and the United States. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21, L, L8, L81
November 13, 2014 Recent Developments in Experimental Macroeconomics Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Robert Amano, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen This article describes experimental economics, in general, and new developments in experimental macroeconomics, in particular. The approach has a clear niche in providing evidence on economic phenomena that cannot be observed directly or that are difficult to measure. Experimental work conducted by Bank of Canada economists has shed light on a number of issues important to monetary policy, such as the relative efficacy between price-level and inflation targeting, and the nature of inflation expectations formation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C9, E, E3, E31, E5, E52
November 13, 2014 Should Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking? Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison When constrained by the zero lower bound, some central banks have communicated a threshold that must be met before short-term interest rates would be permitted to rise. Simulation results for Canada show that forward guidance that is conditional on achieving a price-level threshold can theoretically raise demand and inflation expectations by significantly more than unemployment thresholds. This superior performance is attributable to the fact that the price-level threshold depends on past inflation outcomes. In practice, however, history-dependent thresholds such as this might be more challenging for central banks to communicate. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58