Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2024 global monitoring report Staff Analytical Note 2025-19 Elba Gomez Navas Acevedo, Thomas Thorn We share insights about non-bank financial intermediation in Canada in 2023. These data were collected as part of the Bank of Canada’s contribution to the Financial Stability Board’s Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G22, G23
Examining the Links Between Firm Performance and Insolvency Staff Discussion Paper 2025-10 Dylan Hogg, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli Assessing insolvency dynamics is essential for evaluating the financial health of non-financial corporations and mitigating macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This study leverages a newly created Statistics Canada dataset linking insolvency records with firm-level financial data to develop a robust framework for monitoring insolvency risk Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, G, G3, G33, L, L2, L20
On the Programmability and Uniformity of Digital Currencies Staff Working Paper 2025-18 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet Central bankers argue that programmable digital currencies may compromise the uniformity of money. We develop a stylized model to examine this argument and the trade-offs involved in circulating programmable money. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58
Correcting Selection Bias in a Non-Probability Two-Phase Payment Survey Staff Working Paper 2025-17 Heng Chen, John Tsang We develop statistical inferences for a non-probability two-phase survey sample when relevant auxiliary information is available from a probability survey sample. The proposed method is assessed by simulation studies and used to analyze a non-probability two phase payment survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83
Incorporating Trip-Chaining to Measuring Canadians’ Access to Cash Staff Working Paper 2025-16 Heng Chen, Hongyu Xiao Our paper employs smartphone data to construct an improved cash access metric by accounting for both spatial agglomeration and households’ travel patterns. We find that incorporating trip-chaining into the travel metric could show that travel costs are from 15 to 25% less than not incorporating trip-chaining and that the biggest decrease is driven by rural residents. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, O, O1, O18, R, R2, R22, R4, R41
Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018 Staff Analytical Note 2025-18 Alexander Lam US trade protectionism is making the economic outlook increasingly uncertain. To assess how consumer prices may respond to tariffs, we examine a tariff episode from 2018 using detailed microdata and the synthetic control method. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, F, F1, F10, F13, F14
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2025 update Staff Analytical Note 2025-17 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos We provide an update on the state of the labour market, which has moved into modest excess supply. We also explore why wage growth measures remain elevated and how US trade policy could affect different parts of the labour market. We update the range of benchmarks in our dashboard of indicators. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6
A Retail CBDC Design for Basic Payments: Feasibility Study Staff Discussion Paper 2025-9 Sriram Darbha, Cyrus Minwalla, Rakesh Arora, Dinesh Shah We outline possible system architectures for an online retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) and identify one well-suited for basic payments. We analyze OpenCBDC 2PC, a representative system, finding such designs to be feasible, although some areas require further investigation. Our framing highlights other promising architectures for a retail CBDC. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, O, O3
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update Staff Analytical Note 2025-16 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Ingomar Krohn, Jan David Schneider We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from the range assessed in 2024. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41
Assessing global potential output growth: April 2025 Staff Analytical Note 2025-15 Samuel Boulanger, Raheeb Dastagir, Daniel de Munnik, Eshini Ekanayake, Kun Mo, Walter Muiruri, Faiza Noor, Sabreena Obaid, Louis Poirier This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates served as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2025 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, F, F0, F1, O, O3, O33, O4